Part du temps partiel involontaire dans le travail à temps partiel  13.9 12.2 13.4 14.1 14.3 16.2 15.8 16.0 16.6

Part des travailleurs à temps partiel involontaire dans l'emploi  1.7 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.6

Part du temps partiel involontaire dans le travail à temps partiel  19.4 20.8 20.6 21.1 19.1 17.6 16.8 15.9 15.7 17.4 17.0 17.4 15.7 16.5 15.7 14.9 14.5 13.9 12.2 13.4 14.1 14.3 16.2 15.8 16.0 16.6

Part des travailleurs à temps partiel involontaire dans l'emploi 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.4

 
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/w [...] genumber=2
 
Todd Harrison
 
 
June 16, 2010, 12:01 a.m. EDT · Recommend (20) · Post:
Eye of the financial storm
Commentary: It's never wise to mess with Mother Nature
 
View all Todd Harrison ›
 
‹ Previous Column
 
Five things you need to know about the markets
 
First Take ›
 
Red flags for BP far from public eye
Story Quotes Comments Screener (206)
Alert Email Print Share
 
By Todd Harrison
 
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- It's easy to finger the bears as a cabal of pessimistic pundits who root against the world.
 
Following the single worst decade in financial market history, they've earned the benefit of their own market doubt.
 
As negative headlines abound and social mood sours, some might view the mounting malaise as a contrary indicator. One could also argue that the prolonged period of substandard performance is on the margin constructive; that a regression to the historical mean would suggest double-digit returns for the foreseeable future.
83465
 
I would agree, if not for the inherent fragility of the global market construct and the sheer size of the imbalances. Read Minyanville's "Five Things You Need to Know About the Markets."
 
We often discuss our current crossroads; government drugs that mask the symptoms after years of societal largesse versus medicine that cures the disease in the form of asset class deflation and debt destruction or restructuring. We repeat this analogy for good reason: it's true. Read Minyanville's "Defining a Path to Economic Recovery."
 
I may be off base -- I've learned to stay humble or the market will do it for me -- but a single word continues to resonate in my mind's eye as we edge our way through this historic fray; that word is "cumulative."
 
As offered in 2005 at the Minyanville retreat in Ojai, Calif. "The problem that comes from engaging in high-risk behavior for which the consequences are absent, even if only temporarily, is that such high-risk behavior begins to appear normal, and the entire scale of risk gets adjusted and pushed out." Read Minyanville's Ojai keynote.
 
Therein lies the fatal flaw of our current conundrum. We've been pushing risk further out on the time continuum for such a long time that it's become an accepted -- dare I say normalized -- pattern that interconnects the world through a tangled web of derivatives.
 
    'Outside in the cold distance, a wildcat did growl. Two riders were approaching and the wind began to howl.'
 
    Bob Dylan
 
While the recent price action has been docile, I believe we're in the eye of the storm, a relative calm between the first phase of the financial crisis and the cumulative comeuppance that'll flush -- and perhaps reset -- the system.
 
You know it won't come easy; this decade will require steadfast stamina and proactive patience. While the first half will be focused on preservation and perseverance, the back nine will be ripe with rewards.
Where you stand is a function of where you sit
 
Some may perceive the above-mentioned vibe as overtly negative but I'll offer a different take. I shared the following thoughts in September 2008 and they're equally apt today as the second side of this storm builds on the horizon. Read Minyanville's "The Great Expression."
 
There are many ways to view this seismic shift; anger (as expressed by Main Street), sadness (as savings are destroyed), fear (as reality bites) and confusion (as folks try to understand how this could ever happen).
 
And there's anticipation, as we cast an eye forward and look for the phoenix that will eventually arise from the scorched earth.
 
The unfortunate capital market destruction is an inevitable comeuppance, the cumulative result of risk gone awry.
 
It's been percolating under the seemingly calm surface for several years, magnified by financial engineering and consumed by an immediate gratification society.
Page 1
 
  The socioeconomic consequences will be pervasive as we enter the other side of the business cycle, an unenviable retrenchment that politicians and policymakers have tried so hard to avoid. It's certainly scary as new beginnings typically are; therein lies the opportunity.
 
The media portrays the Great Depression as one where everyone in America stood on street corners or waited in a bread line. A closer look shows that similar to our current situation, economic hardship for the middle class began well before 1929.
 
We've got a few lean years ahead but that's nothing to fear. In fact, it's a healthy and positive progression. To get through this, we need to go through this and as painful as the process is, it takes us one step closer to an eventual recovery.
 
I view the Great Depression as the framework for optimism. Most of society worked, great discoveries were made and formidable franchises were established.
 
Disney /quotes/comstock/13*!dis/quotes/nls/dis (DIS 34.79, -0.20, -0.57%) built a global franchise through that period.
 
Hewlett-Packard /quotes/comstock/13*!hpq/quotes/nls/hpq (HPQ 48.01, +0.03, +0.06%) was born on the back-end.
 
Texas Instruments /quotes/comstock/13*!txn/quotes/nls/txn (TXN 25.42, -0.28, -1.09%) , Tyson Foods /quotes/comstock/13*!tsn/quotes/nls/tsn (TSN 18.40, -0.28, -1.50%) , and Continental Airlines /quotes/comstock/13*!cal/quotes/nls/cal (CAL 24.88, +0.17, +0.69%) were birthed.
 
Indeed, if the greatest opportunities are bred from the most formidable obstacles, we're about to enter a most auspicious era.
 
The '90s were about wealth, accumulation and consumption and we've now entered a period that is entirely more austere, if not more sensible. Debt reduction and the rejection of materialism will continue to manifest as we come to terms with doing more with less.
 
Flashy rides and big-ticket items that were once badges of honor now serve as hollow reminders of misplaced priorities.
 
Humility, once viewed as weakness, will be embraced.
 
Doing for others -- rather than asking what others can do for you -- will become more commonplace as people learn to appreciate what they have rather than constantly keeping up with the Dow Joneses.
 
This mess is a bitter pill to swallow, particularly for the mainstream American who doesn't know a derivative from a dividend. We can point fingers and wallow in the "why" or take a deep breath and begin the process of recovery.
 
Something good comes from all things bad and the greatest wisdom is bred as a function of pain. It's unfortunate that the structural foundation of the global capital market system had to shake before people -- and policymakers -- paid attention but it is what it is and we'll do what we must.
 
Surround yourself with people you trust. Practice risk management over reward chasing. Preserve capital, reduce debt and become financially aware of your surroundings. It won't be an easy road but it won't be impossible either.
 
For as my grandfather Ruby used to tell me, "This too, shall pass."
Fast-forward to today
 
George Soros spoke at a conference in Vienna last week and offered "The collapse of the financial system as we know it is real and the crisis is far from over. Indeed, we have just entered Act II of the drama."
 
I don't profess to know how long the calm lasts before the thunder arrives; while we were early in identifying the sovereign sequel to the first phase of the financial crisis, future gusts may come from any given direction. Read Minyanville's "Ten Reasons Why This is Not a Bull Market."
 
The uptick in the tone and tenor of the doom and gloom crowd isn't lost on this self-proclaimed contrarian. As the market tends to pave a path of maximum frustration, we must allow for a scenario where a reflex rally -- triggered by currency devaluation or game-changing regulatory reform -- masks the hazardous horizon for the foreseeable future.
 
I will simply say this -- free market capitalism hasn't been allowed to dictate the process of price discovery for a long time as policymakers attempted to engineer the business cycle.
 
As we've learned before and as we'll again see, it's never wise to mess with Mother Nature.
 
Todd Harrison is the founder of Minyanville.com .

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ne [...] essor.html
 
 
2014 will determine course of century, says Cambridge professor
A dramatic event that will determine the course of the 21st century will take place in 2014, according to a Cambridge University academic.
 
 
Published: 7:01AM BST 17 Jun 2010
2014 will determine course of century, says Cambridge professor
In 1517 Martin Luther nailed his theses to the door of Wittenburg church, sparking the Reformation and the rise of Protestantism
 
Prof Nicholas Boyle claims that events of the fateful year will decide whether the world enjoys peace and prosperity over the coming decades or suffers war and poverty.
 
He believes financial turmoil could be the trigger for the crisis, and that the reactions of American leaders will be crucial to its outcome. He also thinks new global organisations will be key to securing stability rather than nation-states.
 
Related Articles
 
    *
      Cambridge University Press plans scores of job cuts
    *
      Professor Sir Clive Granger
    *
      Way of the Cross is wrong, claims leading archaeologist
    *
      Famous Belgians?
    *
      Agas and Bentleys: slow-tech solutions for an 'overwound world'
    *
      Science predictions for 2009
 
Prof Boyle argues that 2014 will be important because previous five centuries have also hinged on events that took place in the middle of their second decade.
 
In 1517 Martin Luther nailed his theses to the door of Wittenburg church, sparking the Reformation and the rise of Protestantism.
 
A century later 1618 marked the start of the 30 Years War and decades of religious conflict in Western Europe, which ended with the establishment of the Hanoverians in 1715.
 
The enlightened Congress of Vienna took place in 1815 following the defeat of Napoleon, heralding a century of relative stability across Europe.
 
But in 1914 the First World War broke out, a catastrophic conflict that would claim millions of lives and set the tone for international discord throughout the 21st century.
 
Prof Boyle, whose book 2014 - How to survive the next world crisis is published on Thursday, said: “The character of a century becomes very apparent in that second decade, so why should ours be any different?
 
“Partly the timing has to do with the way we divide our understanding of human life and human history.
 
“If a century is going to have a character it is going to become apparent by the time it is approaching 20 years old, the same is true of human beings.
 
“Another factor is the sequence of generations. By about two decades in the generation that was really dominant in the last phase of the previous century has had its day.
 
“The future is beginning to be defined by their children who will only have lived in or have memories of the new century."
 
Professor Boyle predicted recent economic collapse could herald the start of a wider breakdown in international relations.
 
The USA will become the key player in a series of make-or-break decisions and either condemn us to a century of violence and poverty, or usher in a new age of global co-operation.
 
But he cautioned the peaceful alternative is only possible if the world realises the age of individual nation states is over and an effective system of global governance is introduced.
 
Flashpoints of world politics such as climate change and the rise of China and India, as well as the global credit crisis, will need international co-operation to be resolved.
 
Professor Boyle said: “2007 started off colossal economic change which has still got a long way to go.
 
“Big economic changes lead to big political changes and we have not seen them yet.
 
“My thesis is that we have got another crisis to come, and you can already see that in the questions being raised over the debts of nations rather than private credit debts.
 
“One thing that has not changed is the colossus that is the American military which means the USA has to be a key player in any major political shift.
 
“We are going to see disparity in America's perception of its declining economic significance and continuing military and political absolute power.
 
"Everything, in the end, may depend on whether America can react more imaginatively to that decline than Britain was able to do in the years before 1914.
 
"It is a profoundly hopeful sign that we begin the 21st century with very many more international and intergovernmental organisations than we had at the start of the 20th.
 
Professor Boyle stressed it is a global network of global organisations and the only partly-acknowledged "Empire" of America that will determine many aspects of our lives in the 21st century.
 
He added: "The only conceivably peaceful route to that goal is through a continuation of the pax Americana.
 
"But both the world's understanding of America, and America's understanding of itself, will have to change fundamentally for that goal to be achieved."

http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture [...] -crise.php
 
La France restera marquée par la crise
 
Mots clés : FRANCE, INSEE, FMI
Par Mathilde Golla
18/06/2010 | Mise à jour : 08:24 Réagir
 
L'Insee dévoile ses hypothèses de croissance pour la France à horizon 2018. L'institut estime que le pays ne rattrapera pas l'intégralité du «terrain perdu» pendant la crise. La veille, le Fonds monétaire international ne s'était pas montré plus optimiste
 
L'économie française pourrait être structurellement affectée par la crise. C'est en tout cas ce que croit l'Insee qui détaille ce jour son scénario de croissance à moyen terme dans l'Hexagone. L'institut français de statistiques avance que le produit intérieur brut (PIB) de la France ne devrait pas rattraper le retard pris au moment de la crise. L'Insee estime en effet que la France retrouvera son rythme de croissance antérieur à la crise mais qu'une partie du «terrain perdu» ne sera jamais rattrapé.
 
L'Insee explique que la crise «constitue un choc macroéconomique majeur» et peut «avoir un impact négatif durable sur l'emploi, le capital et la productivité globale des facteurs. Elle tend à déprimer simultanément la demande et l'offre ». Et selon l'institut, la perte de recettes au moment de la crise et la hausse des intérêts de la dette vont peser sur l'endettement public et la croissance. Plusieurs scénarios sont étudiés par le spécialiste des statistiques en France. Le ratio dette sur PIB serait accru de 40 points de PIB à l'horizon 2018, en l'absence de réduction de la dette.
 
Et l'Insee précise «l'impact des différents scénarios de perte de produit intérieur brut sur la dette publique s'avère élevé à l'horizon 2018», entre 20% et 50% du PIB selon les hypothèses retenues. Didier Blanchet, chef du département des études économiques précise toutefois «il ne s'agit pas d'une prévision», mais d'une hypothèse.
 
Déficit structurel dégradé
 
La veille, Jean-Philippe Cotis, directeur général de l'Insee avait indiqué «la crise a fait perdre à la France, irrémédiablement, environ 3 points de PIB de recettes fiscales et sociales. La croissance redémarre assez normalement mais il reste une cicatrice». Selon lui, le déficit structurel des finances publiques s'est ainsi dégradé de 3 points de PIB de manière permanente et les pouvoirs publics vont devoir corriger ce déséquilibre.
 
Le FMI pas plus optimiste
 
Le Fonds monétaire international (FMI) n'était guère plus optimiste hier. Dans son rapport annuel sur la France, l'institution estime que la reprise y restera «fragile» et les perspectives «très incertaines». Selon le FMI, le gouvernement pourrait avoir sous-estimé de façon significative les efforts de réduction budgétaire à accomplir pour revenir à 3% de déficit public.