How the US Mopped Up a Third of Global Capital Flows Since Covid
 
In the face of calls around the world to diversify out of the dollar in recent years, the US has nabbed almost one-third of all the investment that flowed across borders since Covid struck.
 
An International Monetary Fund analysis sent by request to Bloomberg News shows that the share of global flows has climbed — not fallen — since a shortage of dollars in 2020 spooked global investors and the 2022 freezing of Russian assets stoked questions about respect for free movement of capital. The pre-pandemic US average share was just 18%, according to the IMF.
 
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The US has also pulled in a fresh wave of foreign direct investment (FDI) thanks to billions of dollars worth of incentives under President Joe Biden’s initiatives to spur renewable energy and semiconductor production.
 
The trend marks a major shift from the pre-pandemic days when capital poured into emerging markets, including a rapidly growing China. The big US geopolitical rival has seen its share of gross global inflows more than halve since the pandemic hit.
 
But with Donald Trump pledging to reverse the key elements of Bidenomics if he wins the November election, and the Federal Reserve signalling it will start lowering interest rates later this year, the US advantages may not last.
 
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China’s share of gross cross-border capital flows amounted to 3% over the 2021-23 period, down from around 7% during the decade through 2019, according to IMF data.
 
Those figures showcase why President Xi Jinping and his lieutenants have for some time now been fighting to revive foreign investor interest in the country. Xi is also preparing for a Chinese Communist leadership confab where new reform steps are expected — potentially shifting the investor narrative over China.
 
Even so, April data showed overseas investment into China slowed for a fourth straight month. And, with interest rates around the lowest levels in modern times, domestic Chinese capital is pouring out, with local firms buying the most foreign exchange since 2016 in April.
 
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China's broken recovery: New data shows drag on its economy
 
China's rise to global economic powerhouse was propelled in part by a historic property boom. Now, a yearslong housing crisis keeps dragging the economy down — a notable reversal in the economic dynamics between the China and U.S.
 
China's government stimulus measures to shore up its property sector have yet to produce results. Efforts to offset that pain by boosting manufacturing and exports face intense pushback from other global powers, such as the U.S.
 
It puts China's post-pandemic recovery further out of reach. That might restrain the nation's economic influence that once appeared unshakeable.
 
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Chinese officials last month announced a slew of measures to rescue the housing market by ginning up demand and soaking up supply. That included removing minimum interest rates on mortgages and letting local governments buy up unsold properties.
 
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To the dismay of officials in the U.S., Europe and elsewhere, China is leaning on export-led growth — particularly of heavily subsidized clean energy products — to boost its economy. But that, too, cooled off last month.
 
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China's manufacturing strategy is facing more backlash around the world, threatening to escalate a global trade war.
 
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