michel 1664 a écrit :
Goldman Sachs redevient Positif sur l'Eco US Goldman Jumps Shark, "Fundamentally" Shifts Its "Bearish" Outlook On Economy: Goes Bullish, Hikes Outlook
Citation :
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"This outlook represents a fundamental shift in the thinking that has governed our forecast for at least the last five years... Five years ago, we became very pessimistic about the US economic outlook. This was because we expected downturns in the housing and mortgage markets to trigger a substantial increase in the private sector financial balance—the gap between the total income and total spending of US households and businesses. In turn, we thought this weakening in private-sector demand would cause an economic slowdown as the government and foreign sectors failed to take up the slack. So why do we now expect growth to pick up? In a nutshell, it is because underlying demand has strengthened significantly, as shown in Exhibit 3. This chart plots the growth rate of real GDP (dark line) alongside the growth rate of underlying demand (light line). After a deep downturn from 2007 to mid-2009 and near-stagnation from mid-2009 to mid-2010, underlying demand is now accelerating sharply. Currently, it is on track for a 5% (annualized) growth rate in the fourth quarter." Much more hopium inside. This is unfortunate. Jan Hatzius used to have credibility.
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Punaise, avec un niveau de dette aussi élevé ? Avec des matières premières qui vont s'enflammer à la moindre suspicion de reprise ? Vraiment, être optimiste c'est pas évident
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