On peut Vader  5 Hermès sur Boursorama ?

Notes d'un call GS hier soir au sujet du conflit Ukrainien mais surtout du marché à l'heure actuelle:
 
Our panellists put the risk of Russian military intervention in Ukraine at 50%, possibly higher than currently discounted in the markets. However, in the case of military action, the end-game remains unclear whether it would be a full scale invasion of Ukraine or the occupation of the Donbass and Eastern provinces. The overarching impression is that Putin cannot leave empty-handed and that he continues to play poker rather than chess, creating optionality an trying to drive a wedge among Nato partners.
■      Nato’s response to a Russian military move would be through sanctions, but these spread uneven pain, particularly among European countries. Hence Germany’s more ambivalent stance, part of which also owes to history, the composition of the current coalition and its attitude towards a withdrawing US.
■      A weak response by Nato to the Ukrainian crisis would provide poor signals for two other confrontational situations in the world: China-Taiwan and Iran. On Taiwan, our panellists acknowledge that the recent show of unity between Russia and China was surprising for its depth. However, it could still be opportunistic as China is clearly the leading party. There is also pessimism on the Iran negotiations yielding an agreement and on whether an agreement would be much of a relief as Iran’s Uranium enrichment has now largely achieved its targets and is close to break-out point. Interestingly, there is a view that Iran has managed to create a non-USD currency circuit with the connivance of Russia which significantly blunts the impact of US and Western-imposed sanctions.  
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C'est mieux écrit que Vonfleck, le scénario se tient mais ils en savent pas plus que les Oumains    
 
 
 
Mais merci du partage. C'est tout de même intéressant  

Donc après 60% de hausse, tu quittes la team "anti" pour rejoindre la team URW ?
Vendu tous mes titres URW à 71.8
Pas très satisfait de ma PV de 20%. Je sais pas expliquer autrement que par un accès de mental extra-fin.
Près à revenir sur un petit replis.

 
Our panellists put the risk of Russian military intervention in Ukraine at 50%,

Notes d'un call GS hier soir au sujet du conflit Ukrainien mais surtout du marché à l'heure actuelle:

 
J'aime les gars qui calculent un risque de guerre.    
 
Tout ça pour balancer : 1 chance/2    
 
 

 
Soit la Russie attaque, soit elle ne le fait pas. C'est bien une chance sur deux    

 
Soit la Russie attaque, soit elle ne le fait pas. C'est bien une chance sur deux    

C’est assez raccord avec les analyses boursières.
Ça peut monter ou descendre  

Notes d'un call GS hier soir au sujet du conflit Ukrainien mais surtout du marché à l'heure actuelle:
 
Our panellists put the risk of Russian military intervention in Ukraine at 50%, possibly higher than currently discounted in the markets. However, in the case of military action, the end-game remains unclear whether it would be a full scale invasion of Ukraine or the occupation of the Donbass and Eastern provinces. The overarching impression is that Putin cannot leave empty-handed and that he continues to play poker rather than chess, creating optionality an trying to drive a wedge among Nato partners.
■      Nato’s response to a Russian military move would be through sanctions, but these spread uneven pain, particularly among European countries. Hence Germany’s more ambivalent stance, part of which also owes to history, the composition of the current coalition and its attitude towards a withdrawing US.
■      A weak response by Nato to the Ukrainian crisis would provide poor signals for two other confrontational situations in the world: China-Taiwan and Iran. On Taiwan, our panellists acknowledge that the recent show of unity between Russia and China was surprising for its depth. However, it could still be opportunistic as China is clearly the leading party. There is also pessimism on the Iran negotiations yielding an agreement and on whether an agreement would be much of a relief as Iran’s Uranium enrichment has now largely achieved its targets and is close to break-out point. Interestingly, there is a view that Iran has managed to create a non-USD currency circuit with the connivance of Russia which significantly blunts the impact of US and Western-imposed sanctions.  
■      The recent market downdraft owes to a confluence of factors: geopolitical tensions, soaring inflation, less accommodative monetary policy and fears of slowing economic growth.
■      ISG expect US inflation to peak in the coming months to then decline in the second part of the year, with headline inflation falling back to 3.5% y-o-y at the end of the year. The current growth slowdown likely reflects a drag from Omicron and growth will continue to be above trend in 2022, albeit slower than in 2021.
■      Central Banks have shifted their monetary stance in a more hawkish direction and nominal and real yields have backed up in consequence. In addition to the magnitude of the yield increase it is the speed of it that spooked equity markets. History suggest that rates still have room to rise before they become negatively correlated with stocks.
■      Heightened expectations, strong returns in recent years and the long duration of their earnings and cash flows have made the tech sector particularly vulnerable to the back-up in yields. Current tech valuations, albeit elevated, are not in a bubble as evidenced by their implied risk premium and earnings growth rate vs history. High earnings expectations and rising rates will nevertheless represent a headwind, but not to the point of warranting an underweight. Tactically, ISG remain overweight value stocks, energy and financials in particular
■      History points to a 40% chance that the imminent Fed hiking cycle will not lead to a recession and that even in a recessionary cycle there is a significant time lag between the first hike and the peak in the S&P 500.
■      With 60% of its member companies having reported, Q4 2021 S&P 500 earnings are 8pp above consensus estimates, driven by stronger than expected profit margins. ISG expects sales growth to drive EPS 12% higher in 2022 as operating leverage will offset wage and inflation growth and therefore help to protect margins.

 
   
C'est mieux écrit que Vonfleck, le scénario se tient mais ils en savent pas plus que les Oumains    
 
 
 
Mais merci du partage. C'est tout de même intéressant  

Wow
CPI 7,5%

Qu'est-ce qui provoque la chute soudaine des indices ?

Inflation US plus élevée que prévu

 
Prévu à 7 c'est pas non plus l'explosion de surprise mais c'est un peu plus haut. Je pensais qu'on allait toucher 2% aujourd'hui, ce sera peut être le cas.

 
Eh bien c'est le cas  

Cette envie de revenir sur URW

Comme quoi on ne se soigne pas

Tu as vendu à combien ?

Il est où SirConstance ?
Sans lui, je verse dans un optimisme béat, à deux doigts de mettre du levier
Sans blague, c'était l'un des rares bears/value bro qu'on pouvant prendre au sérieux.
L'un des seuls à me faire douter de mes convictions