THE REAL PROBLEM WITH RUSSIA IS NOT PUTIN: IT IS RUSSIA
 
Since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Western observers have kept focusing on Putin. He is considered the core of the problem: a despot who brainwashes his people and runs his country with terror. While this is true, the real problem is somewhere else.
 
Russia has been bullying, threatening and invading its neighbours for centuries. Finland, the Baltic states, Poland, Romania, Georgia, Afghanistan have been its victims long before Putin.
Even today, Putin is very popular among Russians. Recent independent polls suggest that over 70% of Russians in Russia support Putin and the invasion of Ukraine (source: Levada Canter). Incredibly, this is also the case for 78% of Russians living in the Baltic states. How is this possible? Russians living in Estonia are EU citizens, free from Putin's brainwashing. Yet, the large majority support him.
 
Don't get me wrong. There are many Russians who oppose Putin. Some of them are bravely challenging him in the streets of Moscow. Many well educated, cosmopolitan upper-middle class Russian citizens vote with their feet and leave the country. But they are a minority. The sad reality is that most Russians are with Putin and support his invasion of Ukraine.
 
So, where is the real problem? The problem lies in Russian culture: a combination of high power-distance, collectivism and nationalism. The high power distance suggests that Russians reject the idea of a democratic system and have a preference for a strong leader running the country with an iron fist: Putin today, Stalin before him. Russian leaders who tried to make the country more democratic - like Gorbachev or Yeltsin - are unpopular in Russia.
 
Nationalism, solidarity and cultural identity shared between Russians is complex and usually summarised through metaphors. Sometimes, Russians revert to simply leaving this fact unexplained, quoting the famous poet Fyodor Tyutchev, who said “you cannot understand Russia with your mind… you can only believe in it”. Others refer to the idea and symbolism of a shared Russian ‘soul’ (dusha). This explains the soul as the combination of one’s heart, mind and culture, and the uniting point making Russians a cohesive and proud ‘people’ (narod), constantly engaged in a epic battle to defend its "soul" against foreign enemies. If you read Putin's speeches, you will find this theme again and again.
 
Understanding the cultural roots of today's tragic events is important. We must realise that getting rid of Putin will not solve the problem. The only way to build peace and stability in Europe is working on a long-term strategy to contain Russia. This can only be done with a combination of stiff economic sanctions, rapid build-up of a strong European defence system, independence from Russian gas and integration of Ukraine and Moldova in the European Union.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/stat [...] 5904203776
 
Visegrád 24
@visegrad24
Today, Finland’s Parliament started  debating whether the country should apply for NATO membership.
 
All the parties had to declare their position.  
 
Turns out only one party, the Left Alliance, is against membership.
 
Finnish NATO membership is now just a question of time.

Ukraine's military: Russia’s ‘pseudo-referendum’ in Kherson set for April 27.  

The Ukrainian Operational Command South said on April 20 that the staged referendum highlights how Russia is not interested in expressing the will of the local population, as the falsified result in favor of Russia’s occupation is “already known.”

Thread  
New from @holger_r and me: "Karl," our Estonian defense specialist, offers his insights into Russia's eastern offensive.

Russian banks planned to issue cards using UnionPay after Visa and Mastercard suspended operations, but the Chinese system put the project on hold until further instructions.
 
https://t.co/pJWTlobom6

Les combattants ukrainiens de Marioupol envisagent un départ sous conditions

Les derniers combattants ukrainiens de Marioupol refusent de se rendre mais réclament à la communauté internationale des « garanties de sécurité », au moment où les forces russes comptent s’emparer de la totalité de cette ville stratégique du sud-est de l’Ukraine. « Nous sommes prêts à quitter Marioupol avec l’aide d’un tiers », munis d’armes, « afin de sauver les personnes qui nous ont été confiées », a fait savoir, ce matin sur Telegram, Sviatoslav Palamar, commandant adjoint du bataillon Azov.

Plusieurs centaines de civils, manquant de vivre et d’eau, sont retranchés dans l’usine sidérurgique et métallurgique d’Azovstal avec le 36e bataillon de l’armée ukrainienne et le bataillon Azov, les deux dernières unités combattantes à Marioupol, selon les autorités ukrainiennes.

Sviatoslav Palamar a appelé le « monde civilisé » à se porter garant de « garanties de sécurité », tout en assurant que les deux bataillons n’acceptaient pas « les conditions de la Fédération de Russie concernant la remise des armes et la capture de nos défenseurs ».

« La situation est difficile voire critique », a-t-il poursuivi, dans cette immense usine, dernier îlot de résistance de ce port à l’extrémité sud du Donbass, où seraient également retranchés « environ un millier de civils, femmes et enfants » et « des centaines de blessés », selon le président ukrainien Volodymyr Zelensky. Les civils bloqués à l’intérieur de l’usine, dont il était impossible de confirmer le nombre de manière indépendante, « ont peur à cause des bombardements constants », ajoute le commandant Palamar, plaidant pour un cessez-le-feu.

Plus tôt, Kiev avait fait une proposition. « Nous sommes prêts à tenir une “session spéciale de négociations” à Marioupol. Pour sauver nos gars, [le bataillon] Azov, les soldats, les civils, les enfants, les vivants et les blessés. Tout le monde », a imploré mercredi soir, sur Twitter, Mykhaïlo Podolyak, conseiller de la présidence ukrainienne et un des négociateurs avec la Russie.

Moscou, qui a lancé plusieurs ultimatums aux défenseurs de Marioupol, est déterminé à prendre ce port qui lui permettrait de faire la jonction entre la Crimée, qu’elle a annexée en 2014, et les républiques séparatistes prorusses du Donbass.

.@jimsciutto provided tapes of alleged conversations between Russian soldiers to @donlemon at the start of his show tonight.
 
In listening, I thought of 2 things:
1. There is no trust between leaders & led in the Russian Army...that will contribute to their defeat. 1/3
 
2. Schofield's definition of discipline-which cadets learns their 1st week at West Point-remains relevant to combat leaders in any army, but it doesn't seem important in Russia.
 
That "definition" was provided by MG Schofield in 1879:
 
2/3
 
"The discipline which makes the soldiers of a free country reliable in battle is not to be gained by harsh or tyrannical treatment.  On the contrary, such treatment is far more like to destroy than to make an army."
 
Every fighting force requires trust between leaders & led.  3/3
 
Sorry. *likely* not *like*

On February 27th, the German arms industry gave Chancellor Olaf Scholz a 48 page list of military equipment that they could send to Ukraine. Scholz waited until today to forward it to the Ukrainians but his office only sent the Ukrainians half the document
 
Scholz waited nearly two months to tell Ukraine what German industry was ready to provide and then held back half the items

A map of the approximate situation on the ground in Ukraine as of 00:00 UTC 21/04/22.