je n’ai aucune compétence

De jeunes chercheurs ont publié une méta-analyse qui a fait beaucoup parler d'elle. Ils attendaient des critiques scientifiques. Ils ont reçu dénigrements, harcèlements et menaces.

Appels téléphoniques répétés, mails menaçants, montages photos visant le dénigrement, attaques sur des caractéristiques personnelles telles que l'âge, etc. Pour une simple méta-analyse publiée dans une revue sérieuse, ces chercheurs se font attaquer de toute part. Accusés d'être en conflits avec les entreprises pharmaceutiques sans que des preuves solides ne soient jamais apportées, ils font les frais de la vague conspirationniste et de la transformation d'un sujet scientifique (savoir si une thérapie est efficace ou non) en un sujet politique.

The global death toll from the coronavirus pandemic could triple by year’s end, with an additional 1.9 million deaths, while a fall wave of infections could drive fatalities in the United States to 410,000, according to a new forecast from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.
 
This new estimate reinforces warnings by many experts that cooler, less humid weather and increased time spent indoors, could lead to a surge in viral transmission this fall and winter — something typically seen with other respiratory viruses.
 
The institute’s forecasts were influential earlier in the pandemic in guiding policies developed by the White House coronavirus task force, but they have been criticized by some experts for making projections further into the future than can be done reliably.
 
The U.S. death toll from covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, now stands at 183,000, according to health data analyzed by The Washington Post. The IHME model projects that under the most likely scenario, 410,451 people in the United States will have died by Jan. 1. The best case scenario is 288,381 deaths, and worst-case is 620,029.
 
Exactly how the fall and winter play out depends heavily on how people choose to behave in terms of following public health protocols like social distancing, as well as on government policies, researchers at IHME and elsewhere have noted.
 
“We are facing the prospect of a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia, and the United States,” Christopher Murray, director of IHME, said in a statement. “But the science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: Mask-wearing, social distancing, and limits to social gatherings are vital to helping prevent transmission of the virus.”
 
With rigid adherence to social distancing and mask-wearing, 770,000 lives could be saved globally by year’s end, IHME projected.
In recent weeks, the daily number of U.S. infections and deaths have gradually slowed, but experts warn that could all change this fall and winter for several reasons. There is evidence that colder, drier temperatures with less sunlight may allow the virus to stay viable longer and help its transmission.
 
One key insight in recent months is that the virus is much harder to transmit outdoors, but as that temperature drops, people will spend more time indoors. Schools and universities have also reopened in some areas, which could speed transmission. Public health leaders also worry people may ease or give up on social distancing from fatigue or lack of vigilance.
 
Few models forecast as far into the future as the IHME does. Many models do not project further than four to six weeks ahead.