Citation :
Midnight Ramblings
Post Date: 24 Aug, 2009
Hey Guys,
So, I've taken melatonin and unisom and I still can't sleep right now. I know you guys have missed hearing about my bad sleep habits. There's too much on my mind I think.
Poker has been a roller coaster lately. I've had 2 very big winning days and 2 very big losing days (see last post for the latest one) all in the last week and a half. It's half fun, half painful. Luckily (sorta) the wins have come right before the losses, so I never felt like I'd lost a bunch, though ending on a bad note is never fun.
Playing around with some variance calculators has made me realize that at the frequency the nosebleeds run, I won't see the long run for about 5+ years. I wasn't even planning on playing that long. It's a little disheartening to know that I have so little control over my month to month results. Maybe disheartening is the wrong word. It makes me feel, I dunno, not in control of things. I feel like there's probably a good word for that, but I have a bad vocabulary.
I think I need to come to terms with the fact that I can't rely on high stakes poker for my income. My EV is still very good, but I need to have other reasons for playing: the challenge, fun, pride. Playing 50k hands a year of 300/600+ for the money is just setting myself up for dissapointment. Even with a decent edge, I can't expect to come out a significant winner more than 60% of the time.
Yesterday, I caught myself feeling like I run bad, and got really mad at myself. Every year, I see people who I know I'm better than have better results than me. Does that mean I'm running bad? Of course not. Some pretty simple probability sims will show that each of the biggest winners every year are VERY unlikely to be the best player in the world, or the player who played best that year. I was one of the biggest online winners in '08, and I won one of the larger
WSOP events. No matter how good I think I am, I clearly ran great. So why was I feeling sorry for myself? I dunno.
I get really frustrated with myself whenever I am illogical like that. Or I guess I should say, whenever I experience emotions.
Selective memory makes everyone think they run bad. When you win a flip, you don't think much of it, but you think about every flip you lose. I remember reading about the same thing with grocery lines or traffic, though I don't remember where (It has to be like 1 of 4 books though. I never read). Everyone thinks they are unlucky with picking lines or lanes.
"I always pick the wrong line! I get in one, and then the guy who gets in the line next to me always gets to the register before I do!"
When we get in line, and it moves quickly, we think nothing of it. That's what's supposed to happen. The times our line moves slower, we remember.
I feel like our brains also do a lot of things to protect our egos. It's really important for us to have a positive outlook on ourselves, and to think we're doing things right. Almost every poker player thinks they're better than they actually are. That's just human nature. (I haven't read about this, nor am I even close to an expert. Just my opinion)
Here's a short quiz for you. Answer true or false for each:
1) I think I've run below average over my poker career
2) In my regular 6max games, I'm pretty much always one of the best 2 players at the table
3) I am (Based on my definition of the word) a smart person
4) I'm a good person
5) If Phil REALLY got to know me, he'd like me
6) When it comes to arguments or any kind of disagreement, I'm more reasonable than most of my friends
7) I might not say it out loud if asked, but deep down I feel like I could eventually make it to the top of the poker world. I could be one of the best. (If only I could run better)
8) I have a good sense of humor. Me and my friends are funnier than the average group of friends
If I'm right, you'll have answered True to most of these. Maybe all? Don't feel bad if you did. I've thought all of these things, and the only one I can actually be sure about is #5.
In reality, maybe 60% of you have run ABOVE average in poker (many who ran bad quit after their first few deposits). Some of you aren't what most would consider smart, a good person, or someone with a good sense of humor, and I might not like you even if I got to know you. (Though probably not many since you visit bluefirepoker.com. You're in an elite demographic)
The words 'smart' and 'good' could mean many different things. You'll likely alter the definition to fit yourself. I don't think that having a big vocabulary, knowing a lot about European History, or memorizing the capital of every US state makes you smart at all. I think those things have nothing to do with what it means to be smart. Coincidentally, I'm a failure in those areas. Numbers and Logic come easily to me, and guess what? I think math and logic abilities are a great indicator of how smart someone is.
I think I'm a good person. I've never volunteered in a 3rd world country or a nursing home. I only recycle if it requires very little effort. I think those are good things to do, but I've met people who do them that I wouldn't consider good people. I'm very careful to be considerate of others and their feelings, even if it sometimes means my own discomfort or unhappiness. I'm always there for my friends and when they need me. I'm never rude or mean to people, both friends and strangers. Those things are some of the things that I believe make me a good person.
Maybe you think you're smart because you memorized the periodic table and all the states, and you're a good person because of your volunteer work, even though sometimes your rude to strangers. Neither of us needs to be right. Our minds create our own reality in an attempt to keep our self-esteem up.
What's my point? I'm not sure. I don't expect to have blown anyone's mind with any of that. It's stuff most of us already realize. I just think it's weird how we're programmed to be so illogical. Our emotions exist to protect us, but I think most are detrimental to poker success.
Thinking you're smarter, funnier, or a better person than most is fine, even if it's not true. It probably will affect you more positively than negatively. That's why we've evolved to be that way. However, thinking you're better at poker than Phil Ivey could end up hurting you. I guess poker hasn't been around long enough to be a big part of our evolution.
Every single pro who I've talked to, when asked their edge in a tough game, gives me an answer somewhere equivalent to 1-3pt/100. NEVER has someone said to me, "I think I'm losing about $150/hr against this guy Heads-Up"
SOMEONE is losing. In every game, there's a loser. If you're playing at a table with 5 other pros, that means that 1-5 pros at that table incorrectly think that they're making money.
Does that mean you shouldn't play in tough games, or challenge yourself against tough opponents heads-up? Absolutely not. There are plenty of great reasons to play games which might be -EV in the short term. That's a whole other subject though, and this is already getting long. The point is, it would be nice if your mind was more open to identifying -EV spots, or lower EV spots, and then use logic to decide whether or not it is a good decision to play.
Self esteem related emotions aren't the only ones that get in the way.
If you make a big bluff and get picked off, your mind processes what happened as: I Bluffed --> Pain. It's kind've like how if you touch fire, you learn: I Touched Fire --> Pain. You're hesitant to touch fire, and sometimes you find yourself hesitant to bluff (or make some other thin play), especially since we remember the bad more readily than the good.
It's interesting how I'm never hesitant to make whatever play I think is best when I have the stone cold nuts. Whether it's to fastplay, slowplay, do something weird with timing or betsizing, whatever, I'm totally comfortable making whatever play I think is logically best. I never have had to associate check raising the river with the nut flush with losing money. In reality though, the play you make with the nuts can easily be as costly as a play you make with six high, in terms of EV.
There are a lot of players/friends I have who I respect tremendously. The one who I wish I could be most like, by a long shot, is Hac Dang. You may know him as trex313.
If you asked him "Hac, how good are you at poker? Are you one of the best in the world? What makes you so good?" he'd probably respond with something like:
"I'm not that great. I'm pretty smart, and I've played a lot, but lots of the guys who beat 25/50 could probably beat me. I just only play in good games, play nitty, play within my roll, and don't tilt. I started playing when the games were really good, and I learned fast, so I got a head start on a lot of the other guys. Also, I run really good."
I think he'd really mean all of that too. (For the record, Hac is actually very very good. He's the only player I know who is better than he thinks he is)
If you made a post somewhere calling Hac out, talking about how much better you are than him, and challenging him to a high stakes HU match, he GENUINELY wouldn't care. If you were a good spot to make a lot of money, he'd take you up on it. If you were a very good player, he'd pass. But the fact that backing down from a challenge would affect the way some railbirds thought about him as a player and a person wouldn't enter his mind.
After my terrible session last night, I was talking to Hac about how badly I've run. I'd lost somewhere around 15 buyins at 300/600 and he'd lost about half that. During our conversation, I kept thinking about how much more upset I was than him (and I stay very calm compared to most poker players I know)
Midway through our conversation, Hac said "Don't worry dude. I'm listening to 'Mo' Money Mo' Problems' right now, and according to this song, we're gonna have a lot less problems."
It was at that moment that I realized that I'd rather be Hac than the best poker player in the world.
Things like pride, fear, excitement and adrenaline, sadness, etc. are always going to get in the way of your ability to be logical.
I think that trying to supress and ignore these emotions is the wrong way to go about working through them. That's what I tried first. They're too powerful.
Unless you're a freak like Hac, try to just accept and understand your emotions. Maybe a situation comes up where you think to yourself "I'm down a lot today, and I'm afraid to make any big bluffs or thin calldowns. I'm just waiting for big hands and hoping to run good."
Then either realize that, and be able to work past the fear to make good plays, based on logic, or admit to yourself that you're not a favorite in the games right now. Or, even better, admit that you probably are still a favorite, but not a big one, and you'd be happier going to a movie with friends now and playing another time when you feel better.
Thinking "These are great games. I'm +EV," doesn't neccessarily mean that playing is the right decision(even if it's true). There are other factors; The two that come to mind right away are happiness and opportunity cost. Maybe you'd be much happier doing something else, which is worth more than your EV (or priceless, some might say). Maybe you could go do something else that you need to get done, or go to bed, so that you can play the same amount of total hours, but at a time that you're more on your game.
If you've been a big winner on Pokerstars, but have lost a lot on Full Tilt, when all else is equal, or close to it, play on Stars. Believe me, I'm farrrr from superstitious. However, you're going to associate playing on FTP with losing, and Stars with winning. You'll play more confidently/calmly/logical on Stars, and more hesitant/scared on FTP. If you want to play on FTP, change the background and sounds... whatever you can change to make it a different experience for you. Make it seem like you're playing on a different site than the one you ran so bad on.
If you've consitently lost to a player that you think you're a little better than, STOP playing him (if you play for the money. If you know you're playing for pride, go for it) Not only does the fact that you've lost a lot to him make it more likely that your assesment of your skill advantage is wrong (Google 'Bayesian Probability' for details), but you'll be playing less confidently. Fear and adrenaline will cloud your logic. Meanwhile, your opponent will be playing with confidence and a clear head.
I could go on, but you can use your imagination and think of other ways to process emotion and try to work with it.
Self-Awareness and objectivity are your best weapon against all the stupid emotions that come with being human. One other way to keep a clearer head is to remember that poker is a game, and/or your job. But not more than that. Make sure to have other things going on in your life so that you don't place all of your self worth on poker and your results.
Good luck, guys. I'm gonna try to sleep again. Wow. Did anyone finish this? I should just write a book.
Take care.
-Phil
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