Microsoft is keeping many (most?) details about its next-generation Xbox console under wraps, but at least one of the choices that Redmond has made public is stirring a spirited debate. Will Xbox Next, as it's now being called, play games designed for the original Xbox? Your answer depends on who you ask.
 
Jen-Hsun Huang, CEO of Nvidia, says his guess is that the next Xbox won't be compatible with the old one. "It's virtually impossible on many levels," he adds. "On an intellectual-property level. On practical levels, too."
When asked to explain (might this be sour grapes talking?), Huang says for cost reasons, Microsoft isn't likely to be willing to put additional chips in the box to ensure hardware compatibility. Moreover, he suggests that current Xbox games make use of Nvidia's proprietary graphics shaders and that Microsoft might have to license them to use them again.  
 
By contrast, Dave Orton, president of ATI, says, "It's not outside the realm of possibility to make a compatible Xbox." He didn't discuss specific products his company is making for Microsoft, but he says that if you just consider the timing (about five years) between the consoles, then Moore's Law dictates that the new machine will be eight times as fast as the old one. With such an increase in raw processing speed, Xbox Next should have plenty of horsepower to emulate the old games via software. That is, the new hardware will be fast enough to execute the old games even if they have to run through software translation.
On the processor side, Microsoft might have to employ its Connectix software to get the Intel code to run on the IBM PowerPC. That problem raises the prospect of additional costs and engineering efforts. "It's not a trivial amount of work," says Dean McCarron, an analyst at PC chip market researcher Mercury Research in Scottsdale, AZ. "It will be a massive task of integrating different technologies."
 
ARE THEY BOTH RIGHT?
 
McCarron maintains that both Nvidia and ATI are right to some degree in their interpretations. He thinks Nvidia won't be able to stop Microsoft from running old Xbox games in software on the new machine. And even if Nvidia does hold intellectual-property rights, it will not enforce them against Microsoft. After all, most Xbox game developers write their software to run on Microsoft's own DirectX application programming interface, not specifically on Nvidia hardware. McCarron also says ATI should be able to closely approximate the way an original Xbox game looks with its own rendering hardware.  
 
On a business level, original Xbox emulation on the next edition raises options for Microsoft, but each carries some risk:  
 
It could achieve partial compatibility through software that doesn't exploit some of Nvidia's technology, but that may mean older games won't look as good on the next Xbox. Microsoft can license either intellectual property or reuse Nvidia chips and incur additional costs above and beyond what it will pay for the IBM and ATI chips. Considering Microsoft lost more than $100 per unit on much of its original Xbox hardware, that doesn't seem likely if the company wants to make money the next time around. A software solution eschews most outside licensing expenditures.  
 
It could risk broadly interpreting its prior deal with Nvidia by using Nvidia's technology and not paying for it. That would risk a lawsuit.  
 
It could choose to simplify matters, forget about compatibility, and endure the wrath of consumers. This would be a big mistake, considering that Sony -- its main competitor -- benefited enormously by making PlayStation 2 compatible with the original PlayStation. Even if fans played original PS1 games on their PS2s for only a couple of months, the compatibility gave them a solid reason to stick with Sony. The last thing Microsoft wants to do is give existing Xbox enthusiasts a reason not to upgrade.  
For Microsoft, these hard choices are the price of not working with the same partners. Any sane observer knows that Microsoft will do what it must to please its current Xbox consumers. In doing so, the company may learn that a low price can come at a high cost.
 

WE'VE JUST got word that the Software Development Kit (SDK) for Microsoft?s forthcoming Xbox 2 has now been released to Developers.
As we reported earlier, IBM processors are indeed the Xbox 2 development platform of choice.
 
The big news to us is that the XBOX 2 SDK has been seeded to developers on dual Apple Power Mac G5 systems running a custom Windows NT Kernel.
 
The Apple Power Mac G5 is based upon two of IBM?s 64-bit Power PC processors and features ATi RADEON 9800 Pro (R350) graphics. However the R350 is believed to be an interim solution and will, in due course, be superseded by the forthcoming ATI R420.
Interestingly the SDK apparently also features an Apple logo on a side bar within the application.
 
What we don?t yet know is whether the custom Windows NT Kernel for the 64-bit capable IBM Power PC processors is 64-bit or 32-bit.
Though as ATI is so clearly behind with even its iAMD64 device drivers for both Intel and AMD x86-64 platforms, we suspect that it?s 32-bit.