Fastest Realistic Timeline
Senate Vote: Early March 2025 (e.g., March 4–7), assuming it’s prioritized.
 
House Committee and Floor Vote: Mid-to-late March 2025 (e.g., March 17–31), if expedited and unamended.
 
Governor’s Signature: Early April 2025 (e.g., April 1–5).
 
If everything aligns perfectly—no delays, amendments, or significant opposition—SB 21 could be signed into law by early April 2025, roughly 5–6 weeks from now. This assumes it’s treated as a high-priority bill, leveraging the emergency item window and Abbott’s support.
 
 
Most Likely Outcome
Given the current trajectory and political will, SB 21 is poised for relatively swift passage. A realistic estimate, balancing speed and potential hiccups, suggests it could be signed into law by mid-to-late April 2025 (7–9 weeks from now). If designated an emergency item and met with minimal resistance, early April remains possible. Conversely, significant House debate or amendments could push it to May 2025, still well within the regular session.
In short, barring unexpected roadblocks, Texans could see this bill become law by April 15–30, 2025, making Texas the first U.S. state with an official Bitcoin reserve.

Fastest Realistic Timeline
Senate Vote: March 3–5, 2025, if prioritized before the session ends March 3 (or slightly later if extended).
 
Governor’s Signature: March 4–10, 2025, assuming swift action post-Senate approval.
 
If all goes smoothly, HB 230 could be law by March 10, 2025, roughly 10–12 days from now. Utah’s short legislative calendar—ending March 1 but effectively March 3—means this is a tight window, but the bill’s momentum (e.g., committee super-majority and advocacy from figures like Dennis Porter of Satoshi Action Fund) supports this pace.
 
Most Likely Outcome
Given Utah’s streamlined process (45-day session vs. Texas’s 140), GOP control, and pro-crypto climate, HB 230 is on track for a Senate vote by March 3 or shortly after in a special session. Cox’s likely swift signature points to March 10–15, 2025, as the realistic signing date—about 10–17 days from now. If the session deadline forces a special session, it might slip to March 20–31, 2025, but Utah’s momentum makes the earlier range more probable.
So, Utah could start stacking BTC as early as mid-March 2025, potentially beating Texas (April-May) and others to become the first U.S. state with a Bitcoin reserve. Exciting times!
 

Outside the U.S., Solana ETPs already exist—Canada’s 3iQ launched QSOL in June 2024, and Europe has products like VanEck’s Solana ETN.  
 
If you’re asking globally, the earliest “launch” has already happened. For the U.S., though, late April to early May 2025 is the soonest plausible date for a spot ETF, barring unexpected SEC agility or legislative clarity from Congress overriding the agency’s process. Delays could push it to late 2025 or even 2026 if complications arise.
 

Texas Senate Bill 21 (SB 21)
Previous Timeline: I estimated SB 21 could be signed into law by mid-to-late April 2025 (7–9 weeks from February 28), with an optimistic early April possibility if fast-tracked, given its unanimous 9-0 passage through the Senate Business & Commerce Committee on February 27, 2025, and its move to the Senate floor.

Latest Updates:
As of February 28, 2025 (most recent reports), SB 21 remains on track to the Senate floor after its committee approval. Sources like CoinChapter, BitcoinEthereumNews, and Texas Observer confirm it’s advancing for full Senate debate, with no new votes or delays reported by March 1, 11:01 AM CET.

The Texas legislative session (89th, ending June 2, 2025) still allows ample time. Posts on X (e.g., @Allinbtc0x, @BryanJacoutot ) from February 27–28 reflect optimism but no new Senate vote yet.

Key context: The bill dropped its private donation clause, streamlining it to use tax revenues, which may speed House approval by reducing controversy (per Texas Observer). Governor Abbott’s emoji hint and Lt. Governor Patrick’s priority status still suggest political momentum.

Timeline Assessment: No significant changes since February 28. The Senate could vote as early as next week (March 3–7), with House proceedings likely taking 2–4 weeks (mid-to-late March), and Abbott signing shortly after (early-to-mid April). The mid-to-late April 2025 estimate holds, with early April still possible if prioritized as an emergency item (deadline March 14). No delays reported, so the timeline remains intact.

Utah House Bill 230 (HB 230)
Previous Timeline: I projected HB 230 could be signed into law by March 10–15, 2025, assuming a Senate final vote by March 3 and Governor Cox’s swift signature. This followed its 4-2-1 Senate Revenue and Taxation Committee passage on February 20 and advancement to the Senate floor.

Latest Updates:
As of February 28, 2025, HB 230 had reached or was nearing its third Senate reading (per Bitcoinist, Crypto.news, and X posts from @Bitcoin_Laws
, @pete_rizzo_). Reports indicate it’s “one vote away” after passing the second reading, with the third reading and final vote imminent.

Utah’s 45-day session ends March 1 (effectively March 3 due to weekends). A February 26 TheStreet article quotes Satoshi Action Fund CEO Dennis Porter saying the final Senate vote’s outcome would be known “in the next three weeks,” but this seems outdated given the February 20 committee vote and subsequent readings. X posts from February 20 suggest a faster pace.

No confirmation of the final Senate vote by 11:01 AM CET March 1, but it’s likely scheduled for March 1–3. Governor Cox’s pro-crypto stance supports a quick signature if passed.

Timeline Assessment: The timeline has tightened. If the Senate votes by March 3 (end of session), and Cox signs within days (March 4–6), HB 230 could be law by March 6–10, 2025, slightly ahead of my March 10–15 estimate. However, if the vote slips past March 3, a special session might delay it to mid-to-late March (e.g., March 15–31). Given the bill’s lead in the “Bitcoin Reserve Race” and no reported hitches, March 10 remains plausible, with a chance of March 6–8 if the Senate acts today or Monday.

Summary of Changes
Texas (SB 21): No shift—still mid-to-late April 2025 (April 15–30), with early April (April 1–5) possible. The process is on track post-committee.

Utah (HB 230): Slightly accelerated—now March 6–10, 2025, vs. March 10–15, due to rapid Senate progress. A special session could push it to late March, but current momentum favors earlier.

Utah’s still poised to beat Texas by weeks, potentially becoming the first U.S. state with a Bitcoin reserve. I’ll keep an eye out for Senate vote confirmations—any breaking news could refine this further! Anything else you’d like me to dig into?