Plus de 1 700 soldats ont disparu de la 155e brigade avant le déploiement au combat, ce qui devrait constituer un acte d'accusation à l'encontre du commandant en chef Alexander Syrski. La brigade était équipée d'armes occidentales et s'était entraînée en France. Le problème réside donc dans l'échec de l'organisation et du commandement.
 
Commentaire de Bohdan Krotevych, chef d'état-major de la brigade Azov, sur la situation sur X :

 
Serhii Sternenko, qui a récemment commencé à aider à approvisionner la brigade parce que, selon lui, elle n'avait pas reçu d'équipement de guerre électronique ou de drones de la part de l'État, a commenté la situation sur X :

En ce qui concerne les désertions et les abandons de poste, l'Ukraine n'est pas la seule à être confrontée à ces problèmes. Par exemple, selon un document qui a fait l'objet d'une fuite, le district militaire sud de la Russie a enregistré à lui seul plus de 19 210 cas de désertions. Et il ne s'agit que d'un seul district.

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en
 
Putin and Medvedev posted their New Year's greetings for Russians. "Everything is fine," Putin said.
 
I won't translate this shit.
Please post your greetings for them in the comments
 
=> https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/statu [...] 3130436690

Eivind Teigland @TeiglandEi45614
 
What will happen to the Russian economy if the main crude oil pipelines from Siberia are cut by the Ukrainian intelligence? If the main Siberian crude oil pipelines remain non-operational for years due to severe damage or sabotage, the long-term consequences for the Russian economy and its geopolitical standing could be profound.  

Here’s a detailed analysis:
 
Economic Consequences
Severe Revenue Loss:Crude oil exports contribute about 30%-40% of Russia’s federal budget revenues. A prolonged shutdown would result in hundreds of billions of dollars in lost revenue over several years.
The inability to export large volumes of oil could exacerbate Russia’s fiscal deficit, forcing cuts to public spending and military budgets.
 
GDP Contraction:
The oil and gas sector constitutes approximately 20%-25% of Russia's GDP. A long-term disruption would shrink economic activity in the energy sector, with ripple effects across other industries.
GDP could contract by 5%-10% annually, depending on the scale of the disruption.
 
Currency Devaluation:
Reduced foreign exchange inflows from oil exports would weaken the ruble, increasing inflation and eroding purchasing power.
The devaluation could worsen economic inequality and social unrest.
 
Production Shutdowns:
Prolonged pipeline unavailability would force well closures in Siberia due to storage constraints, as Russia’s domestic infrastructure is not designed for significant surplus capacity. Once closed, some oil wells in Siberia might lose productivity permanently due to technical and geological factors.
 
 
Logistical and Infrastructure Challenges
 
Export Bottlenecks:
Alternative routes, such as rail or shipping, cannot handle the same capacity as pipelines, leaving significant volumes of oil stranded. Existing alternative pipelines, such as the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline to China, lack the capacity to replace the disrupted volume.
 
Costlier Transport Methods:Using rail or Arctic shipping routes would increase transportation costs significantly, making Russian oil less competitive in global markets.
 
Rebuilding Efforts:
If repairs to the pipelines take years, rebuilding will require massive investment in both labor and materials, straining already limited resources.
Western sanctions on technology and equipment could hinder rebuilding efforts.
 
Geopolitical Repercussions
Loss of Market Share:Buyers like China, India, and other Asian nations may seek alternative suppliers, such as Saudi Arabia, the United States, or other OPEC+ countries, reducing their reliance on Russian oil.
 
Once lost, regaining market share could take years, especially if Russia is perceived as an unreliable supplier.
 
Shift in Geopolitical Leverage:Russia’s leverage over oil-importing nations diminishes if it cannot meet supply commitments, weakening its influence in global energy politics.
 
Potential for Regional Conflicts:
As financial pressure mounts, Russia may engage in riskier geopolitical maneuvers to secure resources or assert dominance, potentially escalating regional tensions.
 
Domestic Implications
Increased Social Unrest:Reduced government spending on welfare, pensions, and public sector wages could lead to widespread dissatisfaction and protests.
Oil-dependent regions in Siberia may experience mass unemployment and economic stagnation.
 
Political Instability:
A prolonged economic downturn could weaken the central government’s control, leading to potential rifts within the political elite and challenges to President Vladimir Putin’s authority.
 
 
Mitigation Strategies and Challenges
 
Alternate Pipelines:
Russia may expedite the expansion of existing pipelines, such as ESPO to China, but such projects could take years and require significant investments.
 
Increased Domestic Consumption:
Diverting oil for domestic use could offset some losses, but the domestic market cannot absorb the volumes typically exported.
 
Storage Expansion:
Building additional storage capacity might help mitigate short-term disruptions, but it is not a long-term solution.
 
Pivot to Other Industries:
Russia could attempt to diversify its economy, but transitioning from an oil-dependent economy would be a slow and challenging process.
 
Global Energy Market Impacts
Higher Global Oil Prices:Reduced supply from one of the world’s largest exporters could push global oil prices higher, benefiting other oil-exporting nations.
This might partially offset Russia’s losses if it can still export some oil through alternate routes.
 
Shift in Energy Trade Dynamics:Europe and other regions may accelerate their transition to renewable energy, further reducing demand for Russian oil in the long run.
 
Conclusion
If Siberian pipelines remain offline for years, Russia would face a prolonged economic crisis marked by declining revenues, GDP contraction, and growing domestic instability.  
 
Its position as a global energy superpower would be severely undermined, potentially shifting the balance of power in international energy markets. While mitigation strategies exist, none can fully compensate for the scale of such a disruption in the short to medium term.
 

PS01‬ ‪@pstyleone1.bsky.social‬

A couple of hours ago, over Ukraine, Russian air defense forces shot down their own Mi-28N of the 6th Air Force and Air Defense Army. Details are being clarified.

https://bsky.app/profile/pstyleone1 [...] pd2emdkk2a

NOELREPORTS ‪@noelreports.com‬

The aftermath of a drone attack on an oil depot in Russia’s Smolensk region became known. According to ASTRA, 11 drones reportedly struck the facility, damaging two fuel tanks with a capacity of 700 cubic meters. One contained gasoline, the other – diesel fuel.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreport [...] pdbw7uqc26 (video)

MilitaryNewsUA‬ ‪@militarynewsua.bsky.social‬

200 Ukrainian airmen received basic flight, ground and language training in the UK before training on the F-16.

Royal Air Force instructors taught the pilots general aircraft handling, instrument flying, low-altitude navigation and complex formation flying.

https://bsky.app/profile/militaryne [...] p3hfad6k2x

PS01‬ ‪@pstyleone1.bsky.social‬
 
A couple of hours ago, over Ukraine, Russian air defense forces shot down their own Mi-28N of the 6th Air Force and Air Defense Army. Details are being clarified.
 
https://bsky.app/profile/pstyleone1 [...] pd2emdkk2a

NOELREPORTS ‪@noelreports.com‬
 
Kapustin Yar, known for the launch site of Russia's Oreshnik ballistic missile is under Ukrainian drone attacks.
 
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreport [...] pi77n2m226

Well Putin said he wanted to enter the Oreshnik into a duel - let it fight those drones.

‪PS01‬ ‪@pstyleone1.bsky.social‬
 
Sales leaders in the Russian car market in 2020 and now.
The country has transformed into a third-rate market for Chinese cars.
 

https://bsky.app/profile/pstyleone1 [...] 2gbwsnl22k

Oleksandre Syrsky, Commandant en chef des forces armées ukrainiennes, a rendu visite à ceux qui font vivre l'enfer aux forces armées russes dans la région de Koursk.

Avec 1,3 million de soldats actifs et, surtout, 7,6 millions de réservistes (ce qui équivaut à 30 % de sa population), la Corée du Nord est “la quatrième armée du monde”, rapporte le New York Times. Le quotidien américain considère qu'il pourrait même s'agir du “pays le plus militarisé au monde”