A few observations about Russian forces in recent weeks that I'm watching: improvements to targeting, continued assaults on Avdiivka, possible missile hoarding, and new loitering munitions.  
 
Last week,  Russian forces used an Iskandr SRBM missile to target the UAF 128th Brigade and potential CP during an award ceremony, killing experienced artillery teams. This gathering is a fleeting event, or time-sensitive target, so the Russians either had foreknowledge of it,  or observed it by drone footage and had the ability to quickly call an Iskandr strike in - which is a CAA-level asset.  I haven’t seen Russian forces strike a time-sensitive target like this with Iskandr SRBMs, correct me if I’ve missed one. Usually they are used them to target fixed sites (buildings, villages, bridges etc), because they want them to arrive on target, meaning last week's strike against the 128th means they feel confident enough in their targeting loop to launch this type of missile against a time-sensitive target. It suggests improvement in their recon-strike loop.  
 
Next, Russia continues to launch attacks to encircle Avdiivka and losses are not stopping the commitment. The British MOD suggests they’ve lost 200 vehicles in 3 weeks and several thousand personnel. The assaults continue.
 
Next: Russian long-range missile launches against Ukraine in October are much lower compared to previous months’ patterns.  Is it a glitch, or, are they stockpiling for big launches later in winter months? Citing @rochanconsulting’s work below,Russia launched around 180 missiles monthly at Ukraine from July-September, on average. In October they launched less than 20 (excluding Shaheds). https://rochan-consulting.com/wp-co [...] -329-2.pdf
Ukrainian officials have expressed this concern that they are storing up for future strikes : https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent [...] 9255439774
 
Russian Skalpel and modified Lancet loitering munitions are reportedly arriving into Ukraine:  
https://twitter.com/sambendett/stat [...] 61631?s=20
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-lance [...] d-by-nets/
 
Other issues on my radar: possible Russian attempts to "buy back" equipment from partners abroad, ex-Wagnerites involved in training or signing contracts with Rosgvardia.  
 
Final thoughts:  the Russians are making adjustments tactically that in aggregate are improving some of their targeting and precision strikes. Avdiivka is a brutal costly assault, but the Russian command is committed to this now, like a sunk cost.

A handful of folks have asked why this is notable. After all, a Kazakh president speaking Kazakh shouldn't be surprising. And that's precisely the point: while it shouldn't be a surprise, the Russian delegation fully expected him to speak Russian. Normally that's what's happens: leaders of former Soviet states speak Russian with their Russian counterparts. Both as a matter of deference, practicality but also as a remnant of the Soviet past and the behavior expected by a colonial master of a presumed satellite state. It is in this context -- and especially in light of the constant drumbeat of Russian politicians making territorial claims on Kazakhstan -- Tokayev choosing to open in Kazakh is a power move and sends a clear signal to the Kremlin.

A handful of folks have asked why this is notable. After all, a Kazakh president speaking Kazakh shouldn't be surprising. And that's precisely the point: while it shouldn't be a surprise, the Russian delegation fully expected him to speak Russian. Normally that's what's happens: leaders of former Soviet states speak Russian with their Russian counterparts. Both as a matter of deference, practicality but also as a remnant of the Soviet past and the behavior expected by a colonial master of a presumed satellite state. It is in this context -- and especially in light of the constant drumbeat of Russian politicians making territorial claims on Kazakhstan -- Tokayev choosing to open in Kazakh is a power move and sends a clear signal to the Kremlin.

A handful of folks have asked why this is notable. After all, a Kazakh president speaking Kazakh shouldn't be surprising. And that's precisely the point: while it shouldn't be a surprise, the Russian delegation fully expected him to speak Russian. Normally that's what's happens: leaders of former Soviet states speak Russian with their Russian counterparts. Both as a matter of deference, practicality but also as a remnant of the Soviet past and the behavior expected by a colonial master of a presumed satellite state. It is in this context -- and especially in light of the constant drumbeat of Russian politicians making territorial claims on Kazakhstan -- Tokayev choosing to open in Kazakh is a power move and sends a clear signal to the Kremlin.

A handful of folks have asked why this is notable. After all, a Kazakh president speaking Kazakh shouldn't be surprising. And that's precisely the point: while it shouldn't be a surprise, the Russian delegation fully expected him to speak Russian. Normally that's what's happens: leaders of former Soviet states speak Russian with their Russian counterparts. Both as a matter of deference, practicality but also as a remnant of the Soviet past and the behavior expected by a colonial master of a presumed satellite state. It is in this context -- and especially in light of the constant drumbeat of Russian politicians making territorial claims on Kazakhstan -- Tokayev choosing to open in Kazakh is a power move and sends a clear signal to the Kremlin.

A handful of folks have asked why this is notable. After all, a Kazakh president speaking Kazakh shouldn't be surprising. And that's precisely the point: while it shouldn't be a surprise, the Russian delegation fully expected him to speak Russian. Normally that's what's happens: leaders of former Soviet states speak Russian with their Russian counterparts. Both as a matter of deference, practicality but also as a remnant of the Soviet past and the behavior expected by a colonial master of a presumed satellite state. It is in this context -- and especially in light of the constant drumbeat of Russian politicians making territorial claims on Kazakhstan -- Tokayev choosing to open in Kazakh is a power move and sends a clear signal to the Kremlin.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/sta [...] 7177561374
 
Elon Musk urges Zelenskyi to agree to negotiations with Putin. He recommended the president not to send Ukrainian youth to die in trenches.  
 
"Whoever goes on the offensive will lose massive numbers of people and history will not look kindly upon them."  
 
At the same time, he said that it is necessary to sympathize with Russian youth because "they didn't ask for the frontline, they have to be there."

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/sta [...] 7177561374
 
Elon Musk urges Zelenskyi to agree to negotiations with Putin. He recommended the president not to send Ukrainian youth to die in trenches.  
 
"Whoever goes on the offensive will lose massive numbers of people and history will not look kindly upon them."  
 
At the same time, he said that it is necessary to sympathize with Russian youth because "they didn't ask for the frontline, they have to be there."