Two Bits
The ETH Pain is not Over

Two Bits
The ETH Pain is not Over
 
By: AJC
 
Another day, another low for ETH/BTC. Yesterday, ETH/BTC set a new yearly low as it dropped below 0.018. The last time ETH/BTC was this low was in January 2020. As this ratio returns to levels not seen since before Ethereum had any meaningful use cases (i.e., adoption in DeFi, stablecoins, NFTs, etc.), many are wondering if it’s time to buy the dip.
 
I’m here to tell you that the answer to that question is a resounding “No.”  
 
The ETH/BTC ratio tells you one thing: Which of the two is the better non-sovereign digital store of value? In prior cycles, it was reasonable to believe that ETH may end up surpassing BTC for this use case, but that belief no longer holds. Today, the market has delivered its verdict, and it's not in Ethereum’s favor.
 
Despite Ethereum’s technical progress and its growth of onchain activity, none of that matters in the store of value conversation. Store of value assets aren’t judged by innovation or utility. They are judged by one thing: social consensus. And that consensus has firmly shifted toward Bitcoin.
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If you need proof, look no further than the ETFs. As of now, the BTC ETFs have an AUM of $93.44 billion, while the ETH ETFs struggle to stay relevant with less than $5.30 billion. In fact, the ETH ETFs have seen an outflow in $ terms since the ETFs launched last July. Between the two, there is an 18x gap in terms of AUM. This is a signal of how institutional capital views these assets. BTC is treated as a credible alternative to the fiat-denominated assets that make up the vast majority of institutional wealth. ETH is treated, at best, as tech beta.  
 
What’s most fascinating is that crypto-native capital still hasn’t fully adjusted to this reality. Many long-time Ethereum holders remain anchored to a past narrative, one in which ETH was the next in line behind BTC in the monetary hierarchy. But the market no longer sees it that way, and TradFi capital has already moved on. The slow bleed in ETH/BTC isn’t just a price trend, it’s a regime shift.
 
This misalignment is why ETH continues to underperform. A large portion of the market still prices it as a digital store of value, even though it's no longer treated as such. That dislocation needs to unwind. And it likely won’t be over until Ethereum’s holder base reflects its actual role in the market, not as "digital gold 2.0," but competing alongside Solana, Avalanche, and other smart contract platforms.
 
In that light, ETH’s underperformance isn’t a short-term blip. It’s the slow and necessary repricing of an asset as it transitions from one narrative to another. Until that transition is complete, and ETH is valued appropriately against other smart contract platforms, not a monetary asset, the downtrend in ETH/BTC will likely persist.
 
The sooner the crypto-native community accepts this, the better positioned it will be for the next phase of the market. Because holding on to outdated narratives is the most expensive trade of all.