Selon un rapport consulté par « Le Monde » qui sera publié prochainement, une majorité des composants retrouvés sur des armements russes en Ukraine ont été fabriqués par 155 entreprises étrangères. Les deux tiers étant américaines.

Dans un document envoyé mardi 13 juin aux pays du G7, que Le Monde s’est procuré, la présidence ukrainienne prévoit un doublement de la production russe de missiles, de 512 en 2022 à 1 061 en 2023, grâce, notamment, à l’approvisionnement en puces électroniques occidentales.
 
Pour comprendre comment autant de composants électroniques étrangers prennent le chemin de la Russie, les auteurs du rapport ont scruté les statistiques du commerce extérieur russe. Leurs importations de ces composants dits « essentiels » ont brutalement augmenté au dernier trimestre 2021, quelques mois avant le début de l’invasion de l’Ukraine, avant de s’effondrer au moment où les sanctions ont été prises, puis de se redresser rapidement dès le mois de mai ou la fin de l’année 2022.
 
C’est le cas des semi-conducteurs, un composant indispensable dans la fabrication d’équipements militaires. 85 % de leurs importations russes provenaient de la Chine, fin 2022, contre seulement 33 % un an plus tôt. « Il est important de noter que la majeure partie des marchandises n’est pas fabriquée en Chine, mais expédiée par des intermédiaires chinois », souligne le rapport, qui note toutefois que les nouveaux semi-conducteurs importés sont moins perfectionnés.

Les sanctions freinent toutefois la production russe puisque, selon le rapport McFaul-Yermak, « l’analyse des débris a montré que la Russie a utilisé, lors d’attaques récentes, des missiles de croisière fabriqués au premier trimestre 2023, ce qui indique que les stocks sont extrêmement bas ».

« Dans certains pays, on a exigé de la part des entreprises un devoir de vigilance sur leurs chaînes de fournisseurs et d’approvisionnement, il faudrait sans doute qu’on les oblige à la même vigilance à l’égard de leurs clients finaux », suggère Beata Javorcik. L’économiste en chef de la Banque européenne de reconstruction et de développement (BERD) cite l’exemple des institutions financières qui délivrent des lettres de crédit, un instrument garantissant le paiement d’un fournisseur, et sont soumises à des obligations sur la connaissance du client final. « On pourrait imposer aux entreprises qui fabriquent des biens à double usage, militaire et civil, de respecter la procédure du “know your customer” qui consiste à identifier le client final pour qu’elles soient plus vigilantes », ajoute Beata Javorcik.

After Chechen troops arrived in the Bilhorod region, they refused to take up positions on the border areas. They only plan to control the situation and not fight with any insurgent forces.

#Ramstein. Plusieurs annonces. La conversion de pilotes UKR sur F-16 a déjà commencé, ce qui crédibilise de 1eres utilisation à l'automne... si du moins des F-16 sont donnés.  
 
Aucune annonce en la matière, ce qui peut se comprendre:
la logique en termes d'annonce de matériels structurants a toujours été par paliers - missiles ATK, puis chars, puis artillerie, puis missiles de croisière - afin de ménager la réaction RU.  
 
Il ne serait pas étonnant que le F-16 connaisse le même sort que les Storm Shadow: annoncés certes, mais quelques heures avant une première utilisation.  
 
D'autres annonces également: 15 Leo2A4 (probablement déjà annoncés préalablement); des annonces canadiennes (AIM-7 utiles sur les TEL Buk-M1 convertis); 10500 obus de 155 mm (DAN-NOR); de nouvelles aides DAN et ITA non précisées. On note la poursuite de la grande activité italienne: comme la FR, elle communique peu mais ses livraisons se voient (BV206S, 60+ M-109, FH70). Certains évoquent la remise en condition de SPG 8x8 Centauro. A voir.  
 
Il faut y ajouter des annonces sur le MCO des matériels livrés. Ces annonces formelles semblent limitées et contrastent avec les "milliards" évoqués. A voir donc ce qui sera effectivement livrés: avec le temps, un acteur comme les US communique un peu moins.
 
Reste également à voir sur quoi peuvent porter les aides. On y reviendra dans le prochain hors-série (août) mais la guerre électronique jour un grand rôle en UKR, bien plus que les 1eres semaines - et le matériel RU est bien plus performant que ce que l'on a pu dire.  
 
Or, les déficits en GE sont une des raisons pour lesquelles les Lancet RU ont autant de liberté d'action.
Il y a du reste un vrai débat à avoir sur les MTO: en disposer ne suffit pas, il faut être suffisamment agile pour contrer celles de l'ennemi (GE+cinétique) mais aussi disposer soi-même d'une MTO suffisamment adaptable pour ne pas être rendue obsolète parce que la GE ennemie a fait son oeuvre.  
 
A voir donc si des Etats appuient l'UKR dans la définition de solutions anti-Lancet.

1/ The Russian Army has reportedly recruited thousands of prisoners, including murderers, rapists and habitual thieves, following the exclusion of the Wagner Group from recruiting in prisons. A commander says their mindset makes it "more pleasant to work with them."
2/ According to the prisoners' rights group 'Russia Behind Bars', the Russian Ministry of Defence has recruited more than 15,000 people directly from penal colonies. This follows the banning earlier this year of Wagner's previously extensive prison recruitment campaign.
3/ Russian war correspondents have recently drawn attention to the large number of prisoners serving in the 71st Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment. One of its deputy commanders is a 38-year-old man known as 'Tambov' (shown above) who was previously serving a 26-year sentence.
4/ Tambov says that MOD recruiters persuaded 373 people from his prison colony to volunteer to go to war and "redeem themselves to their homeland." 127 of them went to Ukraine with pardons, six-month service contracts, MOD salaries and the opportunity to receive state awards.
5/ According to Tambov, "there is no better and more loyal soldier than an ex-convict in the army now". He says this is because while most soldiers are fighting for a paycheck, prisoners are fighting to be able to go home and "fix their past".
6/ His view is supported by Oleg Panchurin, deputy commander of the 71st regiment. He says that prisoners "have a more militarized mindset than the mobilised," "they have a killer's look in their eyes," and "it is more pleasant to work with them."
7/ The Russian government is increasingly loosening the criteria for military recruitment, so that even those convicted of heinous crimes can now join. Its new recruits include prisoners whom even Wagner will not touch, such as convicted rapists.
8/ Tambov himself – real name Pavel Alyokhin – murdered a 91-year-old pensioner while working as a taxi driver. After driving her home, he learned that she lived on her own and kept her savings at home. He hit her over the head with a bottle and strangled her with a towel.
9/ He stole her savings of more than a million rubles ($12,000) and eventually lost most of them while gambling. He was arrested three weeks later and was sentenced to 26 years – his sixth criminal conviction. His previous convictions included rape and gun-running charges.
 10/ Other men from the regiment, who were featured on the propaganda TV show Soloviev Live, include individuals convicted of serious assault and repeated thefts.
11/ Commenting on the criminal records of the men under his hand, Pachurin comments: "Understandably, everyone stumbles for some reason in life. For different reasons. Anyone could have been in their shoes."
12/ As the independent Russian news platform Verstka notes, however, such men are serving illegally under the terms of Russian law. Those serving sentences for 'serious' and 'especially serious' offences are supposed to be excluded. However, this may soon change.
13/ A bill introduced on 31 May by Andrey Kartapolov, chairman of the Duma Defense Committee, will allow those convicted of serious crimes (but not for rape, terrorism, treason and so on) to be recruited. It's already been approved in its first reading.
14/ However, it seems that Russian MOD recruiters are ignoring even the current stricter criteria. It's likely that Russia's pressing need for military manpower is being given a higher priority than any petty legal restrictions. /end

It's "highly likely" Russia is behind collapse of Nova Kakhovka dam, according to international experts
 
A team of international legal experts assisting Ukraine’s Office of the Prosecutor General said it is “highly likely” the collapse of the Nova Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine’s Kherson region was caused by Russia, according to the preliminary findings of their investigation released on Friday.
 
The experts with human rights law firm Global Rights Compliance said there is a “high probability” the collapse of the dam on June 6 “was caused by pre-emplaced explosives positioned at critical points within the dam’s structure.”  
 
The experts visited affected areas in the Kherson region on Saturday and Sunday along with Ukrainian prosecutors and representatives from the International Criminal Court.  
 
    “The evidence and analysis of the information available – which includes seismic sensors and discussions with top demolition experts – indicates that there is a high probability the destruction was caused by pre-emplaced explosives positioned at critical points within the dam’s structure,” according to a news release, citing the Starvation Mobile Justice Team from Global Rights Compliance.
 
The experts dismissed the theory that the dam’s collapse could have been caused by mismanagement of the facility, saying it is “highly unlikely that mismanagement alone would explain such catastrophic destruction,” the news release said.  
 
[...]

"Ukraine already lost 186 tanks and 418 armored vehicles during the counteroffensive," Putin said.

At this rate, Ukraine won't have a single tank and APC/IFVs left within a couple of weeks to even start the offensive.

Russia: Enormous fire reported as a result of a drone strike on a factory in Kursk region. Area of fire is over 2,000 ㎡, 0.50 acres.

On the outskirts of Moscow, there is a strong fire near the CHP-22 Power Station.

On a farm near #Rostov, former district policeman Maxim Maslakov and businessman Dmitry Ganzhenko bathed in a vat of milk.
Where the milk went after bathing is unknown.

Sweden has agreed to send 60 soldiers to a logistics center in one of Ukraine's neighboring countries. They will assist in the repair and maintenance of Swedish weapons provided to Ukraine such as the CV90, Leopard 2 (Stridsvagn 122), Archer and RBS-70.

Furthermore, and also very important, Sweden announced that it will start training Ukrainian pilots on the JAS 39 Gripen fighter jet.