et la c'est bon, c'est officiel, l'irlande est en recession depuis hier
Ca craint mais bon c'etait a prevoir:
The Irish economy will experience a recession for the first time since 1983, the Quarterly Economic Commentary from the Economic and Social Research Institute, or ESRI, showed Tuesday.
The institute expects economy to contract 0.4% in 2008, revised down from 1.8% growth forecasted in March. The economy would face an upturn in 2009 with real GDP predicted to expand 2%. The ESRI stated that real Gross National Product would fall 0.4% in 2008 and to expand 1.9% in the coming year.
Further, the consumption growth numbers were revised down significantly to 1% for this year and 2% for 2009. The institute also anticipates a decline in investment of around 15% in 2008. Export growth was revised down to 4.8% partly due to a downward revision in forecasts for many major economies.
In its quarterly report, the ESRI stated that public finances would grow rapidly. On a general government basis, the institute expects a deficit of 2.8% of GDP in 2008. The jobless rate would rise above 7% by the end of 2008. In 2009, job gains would resume, but the number of employed people on average would be lower than that of 2007 and 2008. A further consequence of the weakening labor market would be the resumption of net outward migration in 2009, the report stated.
On inflation front, the Consumer Price Index is projected to average 4.5% this year and 3% in 2009. The forecast was based on an expectation of more stable commodity prices in 2009. The ESRI said real wage growth would be depressed over the forecast period, in line with the weakening labor market.
le chomage va augmenter pour passer la barre des 7%. Et ils predisent egalement que le pays va de nouveau devenir un pays d'emigration. Le deficit net serait de 20000 personnes quittant le pays d'ici a la fin de l'annee.
Comme prevu le secteur du batiment (qui faisait depuis 5 ou 6 ans la richesse du pays) est le plus touche et la plupart des immigres (surtout polonais d'ailleurs) vont surement perdre leur emploi dans ce secteur.