President Trump’s $1.4 trillion tax cut could have painful consequences for the economy down the road — including a possible recession and a ballooning deficit, according to Goldman Sachs.

“The US fiscal outlook is not good,” Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius said in a Sunday note.

The Wall Street powerhouse — whose former president Gary Cohn helped engineer the tax package as the White House economic adviser — dismissed economic projections by the Congressional Budget Office as too “optimistic,” and said that the deficit could spike by about 2.5 times, to $2.05 trillion, by 2028.

Trump’s demand crossed every institutional norm that has long safeguarded the Justice Department’s independence. [...] Trump was clearly testing the limits of the system that constrains presidential interference with the Justice Department. And the response so far — including Deputy Attorney General Rod J. Rosenstein’s decision to refer the matter to the department’s inspector general — shows that the system is failing.

[...] In surrendering this ground, Rosenstein seems to be giving the president and his defenders in Congress just enough accommodation — without fatally compromising the Justice Department’s independence — to forestall either his own firing or Mueller’s and to buy enough time for Mueller to complete his work.

But this is a dangerous game, and in the short term it may only embolden the president. Just think about it from Trump’s perspective: He crossed what has long been seen as a red line on Sunday, and not only did he not pay any consequence but also he got at least some of what he wanted. In referring his demand to the inspector general, Rosenstein gave credence both to the ideas that there was something nefarious in the Russia probe’s launch and that it is acceptable for a president to demand a counter-probe into a Justice Department investigation.

Standing up to Trump this weekend might have provoked the cataclysmic confrontation between the Justice Department and the president that has at times seemed inevitable since the Russia probe began. But the alternative is watching the slow erosion of the department’s independence, as the president’s attacks take hold, Republicans in Congress either egg him on or cower in corners, and the norms of presidential behavior drift inexorably in Trump’s direction.

Trump added Tuesday that he is "not satisfied" with trade talks with China that took place in Washington last week. He called the negotiations a "start" as his administration keeps working toward a final deal to address trade imbalances with Beijing.

A Senate panel on Tuesday rebuked President Trump's efforts to ease sanctions on the Chinese telecom firm ZTE, which the intelligence community and trade regulators have warned poses a national security risk for the U.S.
 
The Senate Banking Committee approved an amendment in an overwhelming and bipartisan 23-2 vote that would block Trump from easing sanctions on ZTE without first certifying to Congress that the company is complying with U.S. law.
(...)
“If the president and his team won’t follow through on tough sanctions against ZTE, it’s up to Congress to ensure that it happens," Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said in a statement.
 
"Both parties have come together today to strongly rebuke ZTE and the administration’s soft approach. This critical legislation along with the [Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States] reforms that it was added to are huge steps forward in our fight against the Chinese, and we should pass this legislation on the floor immediately.”
 
The amendment, offered by Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), was attached to a bill that would give regulators more authority to block foreign investment in the U.S.

Get to know Elliott Broidy, the next major Trump scandal figure

[...] But today, we turn our attention to one Elliott Broidy, who may well be moving into the first tier of Trump scandal players. His is a tale of government influence, foreign machinations, piles of money, and even a Playboy model mistress.

A new article from the Associated Press lays out a remarkable campaign that Broidy and his partner George Nader waged in 2017 in order to obtain huge consulting contracts from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, in exchange for which they would use Broidy’s connections to the new president to help the Saudis and the UAE in their conflict with Qatar, a U.S. ally that houses a critical American military base.

And as the Daily Beast reports, after years of trying with almost no success to obtain federal military contracts, in 2017, Broidy’s company, Circinus LLC, received millions of dollars in defense work. The Trump presidency has been very good to Broidy, and he may have also been very good to President Trump himself.

[...] Cohen represented Broidy in an arrangement with a former Playboy model named Shera Bechard, who was paid $1.6 million to keep quiet about an affair she supposedly had with Broidy, which resulted in a pregnancy that she aborted.

From the start, many parts of this story didn’t quite add up. Broidy is a very rich man, but not necessarily someone who has occasion to hang out with Playboy models, unlike some people you might be familiar with. And he was not a public figure, which makes the $1.6 million payoff seem wildly excessive. To put it bluntly, $1.6 million is “Keep this out of the papers because it’ll be a huge story” money, not “Don’t tell my wife” money. And why would Broidy, who has access to the most high-priced and discreet legal talent in the country, retain someone like Cohen to take care of this delicate matter for him?

Kelly will not attend, neither will Democrats.

Conservative House Republicans unveiled a resolution Tuesday insisting on the appointment of a second special counsel to investigate their growing list of grievances with the Justice Department and the FBI.

“There is a ton of evidence of real misconduct,” said Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.), a member of the Freedom Caucus and the resolution’s author.

[...] Meadows and others have said the Justice Department has been unconscionably slow to furnish records related to the FBI’s scrutiny of Trump’s campaign, even under subpoena. They are now contemplating contempt and impeachment proceedings for Rosenstein and Attorney General Jeff Sessions.

They also say the FBI and the Justice Department cannot be trusted to adequately investigate themselves.

“We’re supposed to believe the Department of Justice can handle this?” said Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), another leader in the Freedom Caucus. “We should tell the Department of Justice we are sick and tired of the runaround.”

Some members have asked Trump to intervene and force the Justice Department’s hand.

Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-Tex.) went one step further at Tuesday’s news conference, calling on the president to orchestrate Mueller’s termination.

“Nobody needs firing more than Robert Mueller,” Gohmert said, addressing Trump in absentia. “But you can’t be the one to fire him, because we’ve got some weak-kneed Republicans out there who will come after you for firing the guy who needed firing.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl [...] f291bc802e

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli [...] 1780911bd2
 
President Trump decried the possibility that the FBI had inserted “spies” into his campaign, saying Tuesday that it would be a “disgrace to the country” and “very illegal.”
 
“A lot of people are saying they had spies in my campaign,” Trump told reporters during a meeting in the Oval Office with visiting South Korean President Moon Jae-in.
 
“If they had spies in my campaign, that would be a disgrace to this country. That would be one of the biggest insults anyone has ever seen,” Trump said. “It would make probably every political event ever look like small potatoes.”
 
Trump told reporters Tuesday that he hoped spies were not used to infiltrate his campaign, asserting that “it would be very illegal, aside from everything else.”

Asked Tuesday whether he has confidence in Rosenstein — who is overseeing the Russia investigation — Trump declined to answer.
 
“What’s your next question, please?” Trump said. “Excuse me. I have the president of South Korea here. He doesn’t want to hear these questions, if you don’t mind.”

President Donald Trump uses a White House cellphone that isn’t equipped with sophisticated security features designed to shield his communications, according to two senior administration officials — a departure from the practice of his predecessors that potentially exposes him to hacking or surveillance.

A big shoe drops in the Mueller probe, as the Taxi King flips
 
The New York Times is reporting that Michael Cohen's business partner, Evgeny Freidman (a.k.a. the Taxi King), has reached a plea deal with prosecutors and will cooperate with the government on state and local cases:
 
    A significant business partner of Michael D. Cohen, President Trump’s personal lawyer, has quietly agreed to cooperate with the government as a potential witness, a development that could be used as leverage to pressure Mr. Cohen to work with the special counsel examining Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.
 
    ...
 
    He appeared in court in Albany on Tuesday and pleaded guilty to a single count of evading only $50,000 worth of taxes; he faces five years of probation if he fulfills the terms of his agreement, the judge, Patrick Lynch of Albany County court, said during the roughly 20-minute proceeding.
 
Both the timing and the circumstances are key. Freidman faced allegations that he failed to pay $5 million in taxes, including four counts of tax fraud and one of grand larceny. As part of the deal, he will serve no jail time. That suggests that he has been able to provide information of some value when it comes to Cohen, who is widely seen as a target for prosecutors to, in turn, flip against Trump.
 
“Do you understand the nature of the benefit your attorneys have accomplished on your behalf?” Judge Patrick Lynch asked Freidman on Tuesday, a question that should frighten both Cohen and President Trump's legal team.