roll68 | Ernestor a écrit :
Déjà, laisser le droit à l'opposition démocrate en exil de se présenter, c'est déjà un début hein
En cherchant des infos sur cette élection, je suis tombé sur un stastiticien américain qui a repéré des drôles de trucs dans les résultats.
Pour toi, HFR, j'ai refait ses calculs L'idée c'est de prendre les chiffres officiels et de recalculer les pourcentages obtenus par chacun avec une plus grande précision pour aller au-delà de l'arrondi à la première décimale tel que publié dans les résultats officiels. C'est le premier tableau du haut.
http://reho.st/self/76d65a0a812918 [...] 098a19.png
Bien sur, quand on affiche un résultat électoral, on affiche un arrondi et peu de décimales, on en affiche pas 10 comme je l'ai fait ici. C'est pour ça que le 88,6999961837% pour Assad est arrondi à 88,7%. Jusqu'à là tout va bien.
Sauf qu'on peut noter un truc : pour les 4 résultats, on a après la première décimale à chaque fois quatre 9 ou quatre 0, et ensuite seulement ça varie. Dit autrement, ça veut dire qu'on est à chaque fois soit tout juste en dessous, soit tout juste au dessus de l'arrondi. Et quand je dis tout juste, il faut attendre la 6ème décimale pour que ça varie. La dernière colonne du tableau fait la différence entre l'arrondi à un chiffre et celui à 10 chiffres.
On a donc 4 arrondis qui collent à la valeur réelle avec une précision de 6 décimales. Sacré hasard de tomber 4 fois sur 4 précisions de ce niveau là.
Dans le deuxième tableau, j'ai refait des calculs en prenant des chiffres au pif et on voit qu'on ne tombe jamais sur une telle précision. Alors ...
http://rootaxbox.no-ip.org/dieudo/ [...] _scien.gif
On va exclure le hasard parce que c'est vraiment beaucoup trop gros là pour en arriver à la réalité scientifique : ces chiffres ne sont pas les résultats d'une élection, c'est un type dans son coin qui a décidé qu'Assad avait fait 88,7%, que machin avait fait 4,3%, que bidule avait fait 3,2% et qu'en soustrayant tout ça à 100%, il restait 3,8% pour les votes nuls et blancs.
Magique
|
Tu as raison sur le fond, mais ta simulation est un peu bizarre, pour être sûr autant reprendre: le même nombre de votant, avec la probabilité de vote basé sur le résultat final, et simuler plusieurs tirages.
Du coup j'ai essayé, en simulant 100 élections, et je compte le nombre de fois où la différence entre le pourcentage arrondi et le pourcentage réel est moins que 0.00001% (et je suis généreux vu les résultats officiels du vote syrien). Résultat: ça n'est même pas arrivé une seule fois, alors que c'est sensé être arrivé pour chaque candidats !
Résultats brutes:
Code :
- Votes:
- [[10319993, 500201, 371304, 442914],
- [10320890, 499575, 371618, 442329],
- [10320530, 500428, 372464, 440990],
- [10321886, 500698, 371106, 440722],
- [10320944, 500467, 371780, 441221],
- [10318501, 500785, 372305, 442821],
- [10320087, 499814, 372202, 442309],
- [10317590, 500332, 372893, 443597],
- [10319043, 500410, 372363, 442596],
- [10318386, 500557, 373012, 442457],
- [10319842, 499910, 372411, 442249],
- [10319967, 499943, 371908, 442594],
- [10320026, 499828, 371747, 442811],
- [10321103, 500991, 371786, 440532],
- [10319874, 500804, 372844, 440890],
- [10319052, 500143, 373020, 442197],
- [10321335, 499237, 372784, 441056],
- [10320717, 500525, 371646, 441524],
- [10320884, 499216, 371786, 442526],
- [10320874, 500330, 371993, 441215],
- [10320808, 499976, 371620, 442008],
- [10320113, 500541, 371678, 442080],
- [10319461, 499626, 372925, 442400],
- [10319298, 500205, 372378, 442531],
- [10320029, 499875, 372831, 441677],
- [10321496, 499065, 371749, 442102],
- [10319024, 500369, 373016, 442003],
- [10320583, 501135, 371449, 441245],
- [10320736, 500948, 371545, 441183],
- [10319565, 499872, 372441, 442534],
- [10319917, 499910, 372159, 442426],
- [10320477, 500284, 371241, 442410],
- [10318236, 500943, 372176, 443057],
- [10318565, 501133, 372091, 442623],
- [10319818, 500784, 372592, 441218],
- [10321601, 498729, 372485, 441597],
- [10320299, 499578, 372502, 442033],
- [10320106, 500390, 372004, 441912],
- [10321518, 499288, 371474, 442132],
- [10319900, 500170, 371947, 442395],
- [10317888, 501090, 373254, 442180],
- [10320098, 500265, 371307, 442742],
- [10318719, 499984, 373062, 442647],
- [10319299, 500221, 373014, 441878],
- [10319586, 499944, 372566, 442316],
- [10321108, 499729, 371655, 441920],
- [10320270, 499722, 372331, 442089],
- [10319843, 500104, 372215, 442250],
- [10320714, 500134, 372025, 441539],
- [10319190, 502043, 370917, 442262],
- [10318700, 500008, 373128, 442576],
- [10319588, 500680, 372343, 441801],
- [10322231, 499457, 371175, 441549],
- [10319355, 499883, 372194, 442980],
- [10319761, 500863, 371528, 442260],
- [10321940, 499418, 371841, 441213],
- [10318431, 501510, 372522, 441949],
- [10319580, 499191, 372712, 442929],
- [10319940, 499890, 372177, 442405],
- [10319957, 500159, 372971, 441325],
- [10318386, 499972, 372363, 443691],
- [10318698, 500457, 372935, 442322],
- [10320332, 499559, 371792, 442729],
- [10320387, 500472, 372346, 441207],
- [10319709, 499899, 373004, 441800],
- [10320344, 500163, 371584, 442321],
- [10319639, 500308, 372176, 442289],
- [10317311, 500091, 372911, 444099],
- [10318653, 501125, 372508, 442126],
- [10320408, 499687, 371684, 442633],
- [10319488, 499817, 372660, 442447],
- [10317589, 500748, 372494, 443581],
- [10320755, 499892, 372116, 441649],
- [10319012, 501543, 371766, 442091],
- [10320635, 500745, 371249, 441783],
- [10318879, 501011, 371961, 442561],
- [10317609, 501318, 372755, 442730],
- [10320789, 499650, 373074, 440899],
- [10320083, 499992, 372395, 441942],
- [10320987, 499093, 371671, 442661],
- [10318585, 500428, 372882, 442517],
- [10319782, 500300, 372516, 441814],
- [10321476, 499889, 372090, 440957],
- [10321569, 500330, 371109, 441404],
- [10322170, 499354, 372175, 440713],
- [10321022, 499596, 371930, 441864],
- [10317778, 501355, 373175, 442104],
- [10318870, 500701, 372109, 442732],
- [10320244, 500135, 372577, 441456],
- [10318993, 500094, 373132, 442193],
- [10321264, 499600, 372263, 441285],
- [10320018, 500379, 372371, 441644],
- [10318852, 500576, 372072, 442912],
- [10318437, 500303, 373349, 442323],
- [10320546, 499553, 372340, 441973],
- [10320091, 500410, 372311, 441600],
- [10320217, 500853, 371433, 441909],
- [10318525, 500645, 372230, 443012],
- [10319152, 501048, 371945, 442267],
- [10319560, 501726, 371979, 441147]]
- Vrai pourcentage:
- [[88.70231688546014, 4.299323420899999, 3.191429012484688, 3.80693068115518],
- [88.71002677230271, 4.293942830974182, 3.194127902639171, 3.8019024940839294],
- [88.70693250333579, 4.3012745293874755, 3.2013994347114405, 3.79039353256529],
- [88.7185875831112, 4.303595231112668, 3.1897271645528797, 3.788090021223247],
- [88.71049091264776, 4.3016097418588926, 3.195520323674286, 3.7923790218190656],
- [88.68949285963055, 4.3043430127796745, 3.2000327992510496, 3.806131328338725],
- [88.70312483346817, 4.295997081760556, 3.1991474945188463, 3.801730590252434],
- [88.68166264010593, 4.300449390996296, 3.205086771897024, 3.8128011970007596],
- [88.69415145346409, 4.3011198159391295, 3.200531320362387, 3.804197410234398],
- [88.68850441259946, 4.302383309100623, 3.2061095996944236, 3.8030026786055022],
- [88.70101901153234, 4.296822220151736, 3.2009438895579767, 3.8012148787579467],
- [88.7020934104792, 4.297105861473704, 3.196620508195859, 3.804180219851248],
- [88.7026005267821, 4.2961174144426035, 3.195236682352318, 3.806045376422977],
- [88.71185754810814, 4.306113622244081, 3.195571894823735, 3.7864569348240376],
- [88.70129405766274, 4.304506321419596, 3.2046656075098596, 3.789534013407811],
- [88.69422881018826, 4.298824899788661, 3.206178361227022, 3.800767928796058],
- [88.7138516325535, 4.291037656221905, 3.2041498960153723, 3.790960815209226],
- [88.70853980416028, 4.30210826297023, 3.1943685680032647, 3.7949833648662263],
- [88.70997520115327, 4.290857157198834, 3.195571894823735, 3.8035957468241626],
- [88.70988924923752, 4.300432200613146, 3.197351099479716, 3.792327450669617],
- [88.70932196659358, 4.297389502795672, 3.1941450930223203, 3.799143437588423],
- [88.70334830844911, 4.302245786035427, 3.194643614133658, 3.799762291381808],
- [88.69774424354235, 4.294381185744497, 3.2053618180274173, 3.8025127526857396],
- [88.69634322731565, 4.299357801666298, 3.2006602482360087, 3.8036387227820367],
- [88.70262631235683, 4.296521388446618, 3.2045538700193874, 3.7962984291771686],
- [88.71523545839703, 4.289559283271041, 3.195253872735468, 3.799951385596453],
- [88.69398814482416, 4.3007674130845635, 3.206143980460723, 3.799100461630549],
- [88.70738804848926, 4.30735132983085, 3.1926753152630316, 3.7925853064168606],
- [88.7087031128002, 4.305744029006365, 3.1935004536542113, 3.792052404539224],
- [88.69863814346613, 4.296495602871894, 3.2012017453052204, 3.803664508356761],
- [88.70166365090044, 4.296822220151736, 3.1987779012811304, 3.802736227666684],
- [88.70647695818234, 4.300036821800706, 3.190887515415476, 3.8025987046014875],
- [88.68721513386323, 4.305701053048491, 3.198924019537902, 3.8081597935503746],
- [88.69004295189134, 4.3073341394477005, 3.198193428254045, 3.804429480406917],
- [88.70081272693454, 4.3043344175881, 3.2024996192330133, 3.7923532362443413],
- [88.71613795351239, 4.286671298901913, 3.201579933734511, 3.7956108138511855],
- [88.70494701408202, 4.293968616548907, 3.2017260519912822, 3.7993583173777927],
- [88.70328814210808, 4.300947912107634, 3.1974456465870387, 3.7983182991972435],
- [88.71542455261168, 4.291476010992219, 3.1928901950524016, 3.8002092413436968],
- [88.70151753264368, 4.299056969961181, 3.1969557206672756, 3.8024697767278655],
- [88.68422400719521, 4.306964546209985, 3.208189636055522, 3.8006218105392864],
- [88.70321938057549, 4.299873513160786, 3.191454798059412, 3.8054523082043166],
- [88.69136661139386, 4.29745826432827, 3.206539359273163, 3.804635765004712],
- [88.69635182250722, 4.299495324731494, 3.2061267900775734, 3.7980260626837006],
- [88.6988186424892, 4.297114456665279, 3.202276144252069, 3.801790756593457],
- [88.71190052406602, 4.2952664904767, 3.1944459247274377, 3.798387060729842],
- [88.70469775352635, 4.295206324135676, 3.200256274231994, 3.799839648105981],
- [88.70102760672391, 4.298489687317245, 3.1992592320093185, 3.8012234739495216],
- [88.70851401858556, 4.298747543064488, 3.197626145610109, 3.795112292739848],
- [88.69541494662558, 4.315155763780757, 3.188102673345245, 3.801326616248419],
- [88.69120330275393, 4.297664548926065, 3.207106641917099, 3.804025506402902],
- [88.69883583287235, 4.303440517664322, 3.2003594165308913, 3.797364232932442],
- [88.7215529242045, 4.292928598368357, 3.19032023277154, 3.795198244655596],
- [88.69683315323542, 4.296590149979217, 3.1990787329862482, 3.8074979637991158],
- [88.70032280101478, 4.305013437722508, 3.19335433539744, 3.8013094258652695],
- [88.71905172345625, 4.292593385896941, 3.1960446303603485, 3.7923102602864676],
- [88.68889119622031, 4.310574526671395, 3.201897955822778, 3.7986363212855108],
- [88.69876707133974, 4.290642277409464, 3.2035310422219876, 3.807059609028802],
- [88.70186134030666, 4.296650316320241, 3.1989326147294768, 3.8025557286436134],
- [88.70200745856344, 4.298962422853858, 3.2057571968398575, 3.7932729217428434],
- [88.68850441259946, 4.297355122029373, 3.200531320362387, 3.8136091450087894],
- [88.69118611237079, 4.301523789943144, 3.205447769943165, 3.8018423277429063],
- [88.70523065540398, 4.293805307908986, 3.1956234659731835, 3.8053405707138444],
- [88.7057033909406, 4.301652717816767, 3.2003852021056156, 3.792258689137019],
- [88.6998758510529, 4.296727673044414, 3.2060408381618255, 3.7973556377408673],
- [88.70533379770288, 4.298996803620157, 3.193835666125628, 3.8018337325513314],
- [88.69927418764266, 4.300243106398502, 3.198924019537902, 3.8015586864209383],
- [88.67926458165655, 4.298377949826772, 3.20524148534537, 3.8171159831713024],
- [88.69079932874992, 4.307265377915102, 3.2017776231407313, 3.800157670194248],
- [88.70588388996367, 4.2949054924305585, 3.194695185283107, 3.8045154323226646],
- [88.69797631371486, 4.296022867335281, 3.2030840922600987, 3.8029167266897543],
- [88.68165404491434, 4.304024990691407, 3.201657290458684, 3.812663673935563],
- [88.70886642144012, 4.29666750670339, 3.1984083080434145, 3.7960577638130744],
- [88.69388500252526, 4.310858167993363, 3.195399990992239, 3.7998568384891303],
- [88.70783499845115, 4.303999205116683, 3.1909562769480746, 3.797209519484096],
- [88.69274184204582, 4.306285526075577, 3.1970760533493228, 3.8038965785292804],
- [88.68182594874584, 4.308924249889036, 3.2039006354597035, 3.8053491659054193],
- [88.70915865795367, 4.294587470342291, 3.2066425015720603, 3.7896113701319845],
- [88.70309045270186, 4.297527025860869, 3.20080636649278, 3.798576154944487],
- [88.71086050588548, 4.289799948635135, 3.1945834477926343, 3.804756097686759],
- [88.69021485572283,
- 4.3012745293874755,
- 3.2049922247897014,
- 3.8035183900999896],
- [88.70050330003785, 4.300174344865903, 3.2018463846733294, 3.7974759704229144],
- [88.71506355456555, 4.296641721128665, 3.19818483306247, 3.790109891243322],
- [88.715862907382, 4.300432200613146, 3.189752950127604, 3.7939519418772516],
- [88.72102861751844, 4.292043293636154, 3.198915424346327, 3.788012664499074],
- [88.7111613375906, 4.2941233299972525, 3.196809602410504, 3.797905730001654],
- [88.68327853612197, 4.309242271977303, 3.207510615921114, 3.7999685759796025],
- [88.69266448532164,
- 4.3036210166873925,
- 3.1983481417023913,
- 3.8053663562885687],
- [88.7044742785454, 4.2987561382560635, 3.2023706913593912, 3.7943988918391405],
- [88.69372169388535, 4.298403735401497, 3.2071410226833983, 3.8007335480297586],
- [88.71324137395169, 4.294157710763552, 3.199671801204908, 3.7929291140798522],
- [88.7025317652495, 4.300853365000311, 3.200600081894985, 3.7960147878552006],
- [88.6925097718733, 4.3025466177405445, 3.198030119614124, 3.8069134907720303],
- [88.68894276736977, 4.300200130440627, 3.2090061792551268, 3.801850922934481],
- [88.70707002640098, 4.2937537367595375, 3.200333630956167, 3.7988426058833054],
- [88.70315921423446, 4.3011198159391295, 3.200084370400498, 3.79563659942591],
- [88.70424220837289, 4.30492748580676, 3.192537792197835, 3.798292513622519],
- [88.68969914422834, 4.303139685959205, 3.1993881598829406, 3.8077730099295093],
- [88.69508832934574, 4.306603548163843, 3.1969385302841262, 3.8013695922062927],
- [88.69859516750824, 4.312431088051549, 3.1972307667976687, 3.7917429776425315]]
- Arrondi:
- [[88.7, 4.3, 3.19, 3.81],
- [88.71, 4.29, 3.19, 3.8],
- [88.71, 4.3, 3.2, 3.79],
- [88.72, 4.3, 3.19, 3.79],
- [88.71, 4.3, 3.2, 3.79],
- [88.69, 4.3, 3.2, 3.81],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.68, 4.3, 3.21, 3.81],
- [88.69, 4.3, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.69, 4.3, 3.21, 3.8],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.2, 3.81],
- [88.71, 4.31, 3.2, 3.79],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.2, 3.79],
- [88.69, 4.3, 3.21, 3.8],
- [88.71, 4.29, 3.2, 3.79],
- [88.71, 4.3, 3.19, 3.79],
- [88.71, 4.29, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.71, 4.3, 3.2, 3.79],
- [88.71, 4.3, 3.19, 3.8],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.19, 3.8],
- [88.7, 4.29, 3.21, 3.8],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.72, 4.29, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.69, 4.3, 3.21, 3.8],
- [88.71, 4.31, 3.19, 3.79],
- [88.71, 4.31, 3.19, 3.79],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.71, 4.3, 3.19, 3.8],
- [88.69, 4.31, 3.2, 3.81],
- [88.69, 4.31, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.2, 3.79],
- [88.72, 4.29, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.7, 4.29, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.72, 4.29, 3.19, 3.8],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.68, 4.31, 3.21, 3.8],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.19, 3.81],
- [88.69, 4.3, 3.21, 3.8],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.21, 3.8],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.71, 4.3, 3.19, 3.8],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.71, 4.3, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.7, 4.32, 3.19, 3.8],
- [88.69, 4.3, 3.21, 3.8],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.72, 4.29, 3.19, 3.8],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.2, 3.81],
- [88.7, 4.31, 3.19, 3.8],
- [88.72, 4.29, 3.2, 3.79],
- [88.69, 4.31, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.7, 4.29, 3.2, 3.81],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.21, 3.79],
- [88.69, 4.3, 3.2, 3.81],
- [88.69, 4.3, 3.21, 3.8],
- [88.71, 4.29, 3.2, 3.81],
- [88.71, 4.3, 3.2, 3.79],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.21, 3.8],
- [88.71, 4.3, 3.19, 3.8],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.68, 4.3, 3.21, 3.82],
- [88.69, 4.31, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.71, 4.29, 3.19, 3.8],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.68, 4.3, 3.2, 3.81],
- [88.71, 4.3, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.69, 4.31, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.71, 4.3, 3.19, 3.8],
- [88.69, 4.31, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.68, 4.31, 3.2, 3.81],
- [88.71, 4.29, 3.21, 3.79],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.71, 4.29, 3.19, 3.8],
- [88.69, 4.3, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.72, 4.3, 3.2, 3.79],
- [88.72, 4.3, 3.19, 3.79],
- [88.72, 4.29, 3.2, 3.79],
- [88.71, 4.29, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.68, 4.31, 3.21, 3.8],
- [88.69, 4.3, 3.2, 3.81],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.2, 3.79],
- [88.69, 4.3, 3.21, 3.8],
- [88.71, 4.29, 3.2, 3.79],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.69, 4.3, 3.2, 3.81],
- [88.69, 4.3, 3.21, 3.8],
- [88.71, 4.29, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.7, 4.3, 3.19, 3.8],
- [88.69, 4.3, 3.2, 3.81],
- [88.7, 4.31, 3.2, 3.8],
- [88.7, 4.31, 3.2, 3.79]]
- Differences:
- [[0.002316885460132312,
- -0.0006765791000011845,
- 0.0014290124846878527,
- -0.0030693188448198683],
- [2.677230271785902e-05,
- 0.003942830974182243,
- 0.004127902639170955,
- 0.0019024940839296178],
- [-0.0030674966642010304,
- 0.0012745293874756314,
- 0.0013994347114403283,
- 0.0003935325652899557],
- [-0.001412416888797452,
- 0.003595231112668351,
- -0.000272835447120201,
- -0.0019099787767529186],
- [0.0004909126477627979,
- 0.0016097418588927326,
- -0.004479676325713999,
- 0.0023790218190655743],
- [-0.0005071403694500987,
- 0.004343012779674638,
- 3.2799251049375755e-05,
- -0.003868671661275247],
- [0.0031248334681635015,
- -0.0040029182394434315,
- -0.0008525054811538979,
- 0.001730590252434272],
- [0.001662640105919877,
- 0.0004493909962963727,
- -0.004913228102975786,
- 0.0028011970007595366],
- [0.004151453464089627,
- 0.001119815939129687,
- 0.0005313203623869001,
- 0.0041974102343980135],
- [-0.0014955874005408987,
- 0.002383309100623343,
- -0.0038904003055764136,
- 0.003002678605502407],
- [0.001019011532335412,
- -0.003177779848264173,
- 0.0009438895579765294,
- 0.0012148787579469023],
- [0.0020934104791905384,
- -0.0028941385262957198,
- -0.0033794918041412103,
- 0.004180219851248168],
- [0.0026005267821034295,
- -0.0038825855573962897,
- -0.004763317647682008,
- -0.003954623577023142],
- [0.0018575481081484213,
- -0.003886377755918602,
- -0.004428105176265351,
- -0.0035430651759624787],
- [0.0012940576627329392,
- 0.004506321419595949,
- 0.0046656075098594485,
- -0.00046598659218899385],
- [0.004228810188266152,
- -0.0011751002113387088,
- -0.00382163877297792,
- 0.0007679287960580261],
- [0.003851632553505624,
- 0.0010376562219045482,
- 0.004149896015372079,
- 0.0009608152092259736],
- [-0.0014601958397122416,
- 0.002108262970230257,
- 0.0043685680032647944,
- 0.004983364866226303],
- [-2.479884672368371e-05,
- 0.0008571571988342797,
- -0.004428105176265351,
- 0.003595746824162749],
- [-0.00011075076247379911,
- 0.00043220061314652725,
- -0.002648900520284325,
- 0.002327450669616926],
- [-0.0006780334064160343,
- -0.002610497204328155,
- 0.004145093022320356,
- -0.0008565624115766113],
- [0.003348308449105275,
- 0.002245786035427244,
- 0.004643614133657881,
- -0.00023770861819194522],
- [-0.0022557564576572986,
- 0.004381185744496641,
- -0.0046381819725827,
- 0.0025127526857398053],
- [-0.0036567726843514947,
- -0.0006421983337014936,
- 0.0006602482360085205,
- 0.0036387227820369183],
- [0.002626312356824201,
- -0.003478611553381583,
- 0.0045538700193872295,
- -0.0037015708228311794],
- [-0.004764541602966688,
- -0.00044071672895906744,
- -0.004746127264532163,
- -4.861440354675395e-05],
- [0.003988144824162987,
- 0.0007674130845636284,
- -0.003856019539277167,
- -0.0008995383694507808],
- [-0.002611951510729682,
- -0.0026486701691492698,
- 0.0026753152630316634,
- 0.002585306416860611],
- [-0.0012968871997998122,
- -0.004255970993634506,
- 0.0035004536542113662,
- 0.00205240453922384],
- [-0.0013618565338759936,
- -0.003504397128105907,
- 0.0012017453052202143,
- 0.0036645083567612424],
- [0.0016636509004399613,
- -0.003177779848264173,
- -0.0012220987188698018,
- 0.0027362276666842433],
- [-0.003523041817658168,
- 3.682180070629926e-05,
- 0.0008875154154761589,
- 0.0025987046014877],
- [-0.002784866136764208,
- -0.004298946951508675,
- -0.001075980462098336,
- -0.0018402064496254589],
- [4.2951891344955584e-05,
- -0.0026658605522991152,
- -0.001806571745955221,
- 0.004429480406917374],
- [0.0008127269345408195,
- 0.004334417588100159,
- 0.0024996192330131173,
- 0.0023532362443412502],
- [-0.003862046487611792,
- -0.003328701098086917,
- 0.001579933734511041,
- -0.004389186148814339],
- [0.004947014082020473,
- 0.003968616548906567,
- 0.0017260519912820627,
- -0.0006416826222070959],
- [0.003288142108075931,
- 0.000947912107633897,
- -0.0025543534129615075,
- -0.001681700802756314],
- [-0.004575447388319276,
- 0.0014760109922189457,
- 0.002890195052401623,
- 0.00020924134369693093],
- [0.0015175326436747127,
- -0.0009430300388189039,
- -0.003044279332724553,
- 0.0024697767278656357],
- [0.004224007195205104,
- -0.003035453790015019,
- -0.0018103639444779773,
- 0.0006218105392865603],
- [0.0032193805754872074,
- -0.00012648683921412385,
- 0.0014547980594121768,
- -0.004547691795683484],
- [0.0013666113938626268,
- -0.0025417356717296613,
- -0.003460640726836939,
- 0.004635765004711967],
- [-0.0036481774927779043,
- -0.0005046752685053946,
- -0.003873209922426568,
- -0.0019739373162992457],
- [-0.0011813575108021723,
- -0.002885543334721241,
- 0.002276144252068679,
- 0.0017907565934573988],
- [0.0019005240660305844,
- -0.0047335095232998725,
- 0.004445924727437767,
- -0.0016129392701578205],
- [0.004697753526343718,
- -0.0047936758643238875,
- 0.00025627423199381383,
- -0.00016035189401897298],
- [0.0010276067239090025,
- -0.0015103126827549218,
- -0.0007407679906816789,
- 0.001223473949521825],
- [-0.001485981414433013,
- -0.001252456935511681,
- -0.002373854389891239,
- -0.004887707260151863],
- [-0.0045850533744271615,
- -0.0048442362192435695,
- -0.0018973266547548384,
- 0.0013266162484191213],
- [0.0012033027539359864,
- -0.0023354510739350687,
- -0.002893358082900921,
- 0.004025506402902224],
- [-0.0011641671276549914,
- 0.0034405176643224067,
- 0.00035941653089111014,
- -0.0026357670675576372],
- [0.0015529242045033698,
- 0.002928598368357349,
- 0.00032023277154014096,
- -0.0048017553444039685],
- [-0.0031668467645857845,
- -0.0034098500207830895,
- -0.0009212670137519474,
- -0.0025020362008842945],
- [0.00032280101477510925,
- -0.004986562277491835,
- 0.0033543353974399004,
- 0.00130942586526972],
- [-0.0009482765437525131,
- 0.002593385896941136,
- -0.003955369639651707,
- 0.002310260286467525],
- [-0.0011088037796866956,
- 0.0005745266713956809,
- 0.0018979558227778526,
- -0.0013636787144890583],
- [-0.001232928660257926,
- 0.0006422774094643202,
- 0.0035310422219874127,
- -0.002940390971198248],
- [0.0018613403066609635,
- -0.0033496836797590746,
- -0.0010673852705234133,
- 0.0025557286436135307],
- [0.002007458563440423,
- -0.0010375771461417216,
- -0.004242803160142472,
- 0.0032729217428433266],
- [-0.0014955874005408987,
- -0.0026448779706269576,
- 0.0005313203623869001,
- 0.003609145008789394],
- [0.0011861123707888055,
- 0.0015237899431443935,
- -0.004552230056834805,
- 0.001842327742906491],
- [-0.004769344596013525,
- 0.003805307908986144,
- -0.004376534026816703,
- -0.004659429286155703],
- [-0.004296609059394996,
- 0.001652717816766902,
- 0.0003852021056154342,
- 0.0022586891370188766],
- [-0.00012414894710843782,
- -0.0032723269555861023,
- -0.003959161838174463,
- -0.00264436225913256],
- [-0.004666202297116229,
- -0.0010031963798429189,
- 0.0038356661256280233,
- 0.0018337325513315683],
- [-0.0007258123573450348,
- 0.00024310639850178006,
- -0.001075980462098336,
- 0.001558686420938482],
- [-0.0007354183434529205,
- -0.001622050173227585,
- -0.004758514654629842,
- -0.0028840168286974333],
- [0.0007993287499203916,
- -0.002734622084897609,
- 0.001777623140731155,
- 0.00015767019424828277],
- [-0.0041161100363211744,
- 0.004905492430558489,
- 0.004695185283106973,
- 0.004515432322664825],
- [-0.0020236862851419346,
- -0.003977132664719107,
- 0.0030840922600985365,
- 0.002916726689754512],
- [0.0016540449143320757,
- 0.004024990691407382,
- 0.0016572904586840131,
- 0.0026636739355629935],
- [-0.0011335785598731718,
- -0.0033324932966101173,
- -0.0015916919565857057,
- -0.003942236186925463],
- [0.0038850025252656906,
- 0.0008581679933632458,
- -0.004600009007761141,
- -0.00014316151086957163],
- [-0.002165001548846135,
- 0.003999205116683058,
- 0.0009562769480746525,
- -0.002790480515904026],
- [0.0027418420458218407,
- -0.003714473924422812,
- -0.0029239466506774114,
- 0.0038965785292806032],
- [0.0018259487458323065,
- -0.0010757501109637246,
- 0.0039006354597033166,
- -0.00465083409458078],
- [-0.0008413420463284638,
- 0.004587470342291233,
- -0.0033574984279396425,
- -0.00038862986801557753],
- [0.003090452701854929,
- -0.0024729741391311677,
- 0.0008063664927799863,
- -0.0014238450555126292],
- [0.0008605058854840308,
- -0.00020005136486478392,
- 0.00458344779263431,
- 0.004756097686759109],
- [0.00021485572283097554,
- 0.0012745293874756314,
- 0.004992224789701183,
- 0.0035183900999897766],
- [0.0005033000378489305,
- 0.00017434486590328646,
- 0.0018463846733292044,
- -0.002524029577085418],
- [-0.0049364454344527076,
- -0.0033582788713344414,
- -0.0018151669375301438,
- 0.00010989124332194677],
- [-0.004137092617995108,
- 0.00043220061314652725,
- -0.00024704987239587695,
- 0.0039519418772515635],
- [0.0010286175184432977,
- 0.0020432936361540754,
- -0.0010845756536732587,
- -0.001987335500925891],
- [0.0011613375906023293,
- 0.004123329997252512,
- -0.003190397589496019,
- -0.0020942699983459434],
- [0.0032785361219680453,
- -0.0007577280226964689,
- -0.00248938407888577,
- -3.142402039735259e-05],
- [0.0026644853216453157,
- 0.0036210166873926752,
- -0.0016518582976088325,
- -0.004633643711431379],
- [0.004474278545401944,
- -0.0012438617439363142,
- 0.002370691359391053,
- 0.00439889183914044],
- [0.003721693885353261,
- -0.0015962645985032609,
- -0.002858977316601674,
- 0.0007335480297587793],
- [0.0032413739516954365,
- 0.004157710763552203,
- -0.0003281987950920495,
- 0.002929114079852191],
- [0.002531765249500495,
- 0.0008533650003110793,
- 0.0006000818949849496,
- -0.003985212144799188],
- [0.0025097718733064767,
- 0.0025466177405446544,
- -0.0019698803858760883,
- -0.0030865092279697137],
- [-0.001057232630230942,
- 0.00020013044062761054,
- -0.0009938207448731973,
- 0.0018509229344809697],
- [-0.0029299735990093723,
- 0.003753736759537496,
- 0.00033363095616678606,
- -0.0011573941166944657],
- [0.0031592142344578633,
- 0.001119815939129687,
- 8.437040049802391e-05,
- -0.004363400574090015],
- [0.00424220837288658,
- 0.004927485806760501,
- 0.0025377921978351203,
- -0.0017074863774806381],
- [-0.00030085577165550603,
- 0.0031396859592049964,
- -0.0006118401170596144,
- -0.002226990070490764],
- [-0.004911670654266231,
- -0.0033964518361564444,
- -0.0030614697158739546,
- 0.0013695922062928467],
- [-0.0014048324917581567,
- 0.002431088051549679,
- -0.002769233202331467,
- 0.0017429776425315069]]
- nombre de fois que la différence entre le vrai pourcentage et l'arrondi est plus petite que 0.00001: 0
|
Code:
Code :
- import random as rd
- from pprint import pprint
- votes = []
- n = 11634412
- def vote():
- r = rd.random()
- sum = 0
- vote = 0
- for p in (0.887, 0.043, 0.032, 0.038):
- sum += p
- if r < sum:
- return vote
- vote += 1
- for i in range(100):
- vi = [0, 0, 0, 0]
- for j in range(n):
- v = vote()
- vi[v] += 1
- votes.append(vi)
- print('\rPatience............ %d%%' % i, end='', flush=True)
- print()
- vrai_pc = []
- arrondi_pc = []
- diff_pc = []
- n_petite_diff = 0
- for v in votes:
- pc = [100 * x / n for x in v]
- vrai_pc.append(pc)
- arr_pc = [round(x, 2) for x in pc]
- arrondi_pc.append(arr_pc)
- diff = [x - y for x, y in zip(pc, arr_pc)]
- diff_pc.append(diff)
- for x in diff:
- if abs(x) < 0.00001:
- n_petite_diff += 1
- print('Votes:')
- pprint(votes)
- print('Vrai pourcentage:')
- pprint(vrai_pc)
- print('Arrondi:')
- pprint(arrondi_pc)
- print('Differences:')
- pprint(diff_pc)
- print('nombre de fois que la différence entre le vrai pourcentage et l\'arrondi est plus petite que 0.00001: %d' % n_petite_diff)
|
l'election est bien truqué. |